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Arthur Hayes: If the merger goes well, ETH spot price will rise.



Time:8/12/2022 12:20:38 PM

[Arthur Hayes: If the merger goes smoothly, the spot price of ETH will rise] Golden Finance News, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes tweeted that the futures price of ETH is lower than the spot price, and it will last until January 2023. Presumably because traders hedged their ETH exposure ahead of the merger. If the marginal pressure is on the seller side, then market makers are long futures and short spot to hedge, which adds downward price pressure to the spot market. But if the merger is successful, the hedgers will cover their positions, so they are net long ETH. At this time, the pressure is on the buyer, and the market maker shorts futures and longs the spot, which is reversed from the position before the merger. It's a positive feedback loop that should lead to higher spot prices if the September 15th merger goes well. There is a positive structural reason for believing that the merger will succeed.

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