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First release | Wan Hui: The current market is a clear long bull from Western institutional investors



Wan Hui, founding partner of Primitive Ventures, on the afternoon of December 19th, the event "Looking for Companions in the Bull Market Feast - IBIT China Tour Hangzhou Station" was held at the Grand Hyatt Hotel in Hangzhou. This event was co-sponsored by IBIT and Jinse Finance. , Ant Pool, Pineapple Miner, Renren Mine, Juan Technology, OKKONG, M Credit and Babbitt. Wan Hui, founding partner of Primitive Ventures, said in her speech that the market at the current stage is a clear long-term trend from Western institutional investors. She divided institutional investors into three categories, one is speculative institutions, focusing on short-term returns, transaction-oriented, and liquidity is king; the other is investment institutions, focusing on medium-term returns, trend-oriented, and fiat-based returns; the third is allocation Institutions, focusing on long-term returns, and oriented towards value storage, the correlation between Bitcoin and other dollar-denominated assets will become lower and lower. She pointed out that after Bitcoin broke through 20,000 US dollars, the Bitcoin market must be more and more institutionalized. With the entry of allocation-oriented institutions, the rise in the price of Bitcoin is unimaginable. Everyone must hold the coins in their hands well, and don't sell them to Grayscale, and don't do bands. Historical data shows that 95% of Bitcoin's rise is completed in 5% of the trading days. It is very difficult to seize the opportunity of 5% rise, and there is no need to do swings in the spot market. The following is the transcript of Wan Hui's speech: Wan Hui: After the epidemic this year, she fled from San Francisco and returned to the mainland. This is the first time that she has lived seriously in China for so long, and found that the entire domestic industry is very prosperous. Because I have been in the United States, I would like to share with you some things I have seen abroad since 2013. I have an overall feeling that most industries in China, whether it is the currency circle or the mining circle, are still relatively closed. No matter from the level of information, liquidity, or price discovery, it is still in a state of internal circulation since 13 years ago. Now there is a very popular word "introduction", and the information is also very introverted. LBank Blue Shell launched BOSON at 16:50 on April 9: According to the official announcement, LBank Blue Shell will launch BOSON (Boson Protocol) at 16:50 on April 9, open USDT transactions, and open recharge at 16:00 on April 9. Withdrawal will be available at 16:00 on April 12. Open the recharge transaction BOSON at the same time as going online to share 10,000 USDT. At 16:50 on April 9th, LBank Blue Shell opened the deposit transaction BOSON to share 10,000 USDT. The net recharge amount of the user is not less than 1 BOSON, and the USDT airdrop reward equivalent to 1% of BOSON can be obtained according to the net recharge amount; the trading competition will be ranked according to the user's BOSON trading volume, and the top 30 can be based on the proportion of personal trading volume Divide USDT. For details, please click the official announcement. [2021/4/9 20:02:26] Everyone is saying that many domestic friends are actually completely out of the market. Maybe the mining circle itself will also feel the structural changes in the mining market. I want to tell you that the admission of institutions has already happened as early as 2013. Therefore, my speech this time is "a bright card from the West". Why is it called Ming Pai? From a compliance point of view, all financial report information must be open and transparent. Another clear sign, the wallet addresses of all institutions hoarding coins can be checked. So institutional bull is a bright card. This is a photo taken in January 2014. At the peak of the last bull market, when a bitcoin reached more than a thousand dollars, NYC held a hearing at that time, and the big brother sitting in the middle was a leader. Everyone I read the news that he will become the first listed company in the world, and he will be listed in compliance with the Nasdaq IPO. He is Fred Wilson. He is not only a bigwig in the currency circle, but also a legendary senior in the entire venture capital circle in the United States. The person sitting next to him is the boss of Huidu, and the boss of Huidu is not a C position. LBANK Blue Shell launched DORA at 18:00 on March 22, and opened USDT trading: According to the official announcement, at 18:00 on March 22, LBANK Blue Shell launched DORA (Dora Factory), opened USDT trading, and is now open for recharge. According to the data, Dora Factory is a Polkadot-based DAO-as-a-service infrastructure, an open and programmable on-chain governance protocol platform based on Substrate, and provides quadratic voting, curve auctions, and Bounty for a new generation of decentralized organizations and developers. Pluggable governance functions such as incentives and cross-chain asset management. At the same time, developers can submit new governance modules to this DAO-as-a-service platform and receive continuous incentives. [2021/3/22 19:07:06] Fred Wilson said during the hearing that we should invest in anything banned by China. If you think about this logic, it may be a watershed around 2010. At that time, there was a very low-level investment logic in the US capital market: any victim of a game between major powers has a very large fundamental value. Just like the current Sino-US trade war, the United States wants to engage in Huawei precisely because Huawei has a huge industrial value. So he said such a sentence at the Bitcoin hearing, which is a very wise summary. Grayscale was established in 2013, and it was at the craziest time of the bull market in 2013. Because many of my friends and I were also attracted by this matter in 2013. Human nature is the same every cycle. Human nature does not change. Every cycle, everyone gets on the bus because they are afraid of missing the bus. I remember very clearly that in the last three months of 2013, the increase was basically 30%, and Grayscale also entered the market at that time. In fact, it was an institutional leek in the last bull market. In October 2013, Grayscale took its first investment. In January 2014, it held a hearing in the United States. In February 2014, Mentougou, the terminator of the last bull market, collapsed. First release | Okey Cloud Chain launched the "Eye of the Sky Solution" to promote the upgrade of the security system on the chain: On August 28, the blockchain industry group Okey Cloud Chain announced the launch of the "Eye of the Sky Solution" for the blockchain, mainly through the data tracking system on the chain Research and development, external technical support, and gathering the strength of enterprises will comprehensively help the security improvement of the blockchain and the stable and healthy development of the industry. It is understood that under the "Eye of the Sky Program", the Okey Cloud Chain Group will build an on-chain data tracking system to curb money laundering and other illegal activities by tracing digital assets, monitoring illegal transactions and other means; assist law enforcement agencies in handling cases, and create legal Provide technical support for such blockchain systems; provide blockchain + big data solutions for alliance chains and on-chain data based on various businesses. [2020/8/28] This time, many friends may have vaguely heard that Grayscale, the US compliance agency, has bought all Bitcoins since last year. When we are still growing wildly, because the nature of Bitcoin itself is contrary to mainstream political ideas, in such a large ideological environment, it must grow wildly. I remember that in 2013-2014, the strength of Chinese miners was very strong, including the subsequent Bitcoin fork, and the strength of Chinese exchanges was also very strong. When we grow wildly and are very complacent, in fact, the strength of foreign compliance or foreign institutions themselves are already doing a lot of planning. One of his legs has already landed, during the last bull market. We can look at the number of coins held by the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund, which was relatively stable before 2018, because the first two years were basically DCG founder Barry Sibert's own coins, and Grayscale is a subsidiary of DCG. Barry Sibert told me before that the first thing to do in Grayscale is to avoid taxes for yourself. If you have a better understanding of American taxation, American trusts do not need to pay taxes. If I just sell Bitcoin into another asset, I have to pay very heavy taxes, asset appreciation tax, short-term asset appreciation tax, and long-term asset appreciation tax. It is equivalent to holding the currency for one year, and you still have to pay 20% for more than one year, and you can't escape it at all. He thought very simply, this can avoid tax and earn 20% for nothing. There will definitely be more and more long-term holdings in the future, and this kind of currency holders have the demand for tax avoidance. First release | Baidu's financial report reflects that the blockchain BaaS platform has become a new strategic focus: Jinse Finance reported that on February 28, 2020, Baidu (stock code BAIDU) announced its financial report, which separately described the progress related to the blockchain BaaS platform. The blockchain platform based on Baidu Smart Cloud is expected to become a new growth engine in the direction of technological innovation. In terms of AI services, Baidu has reached a cooperation with Shanghai Pudong Development Bank to jointly build a blockchain alliance and realize cross-bank information verification on the Baidu Blockchain Service (BaaS) platform. [2020/2/28] The real big watershed may come in 2018 and 2019, especially since last year, gray scale began to grow explosively. If you want to get grayscale shares, you can buy them with cash, and there is a very high bargaining price, and you can also buy them with bitcoin. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust Fund guarantees that one share can correspond to a certain number of real Bitcoins. Because the face value of GBTC stocks has a very high premium, it has led to a lot of institutions depositing Bitcoins for arbitrage. Many domestic media in It is said that Grayscale buys all the output every day. This purchase does not take US dollar cash to the market to buy spot goods, and the impact on the market will not be that great. More than 70% of them have many institutions depositing coins for arbitrage. It's a big concept. What did you just say is an institution? I have divided institutions into three categories. The first category is speculative institutions. It is relatively short-term, transaction-oriented, and liquidity is king. Most institutions on Wall Street are like this. For example, ark, which has a relatively large trading volume, is a relatively professional hedge fund on Wall Street. to high mobility. Whether they are doing term arbitrage or more professional quantitative trading, they are speculative institutions, and what they eat is volatility itself. The second category is investment institutions. Investment institutions are many institutions that deposit coins in Grayscale, and they cannot get coins after depositing for 6 months. From this point of view, it has a positive impact on the medium and long-term currency prices. In addition, Grayscale does not have a redemption mechanism now. The only thing I do is save paper bits, because I get the shares of the society. If I want Guarantee the bitcoin position, and I will buy the bitcoin back again. In the medium and long term, this type of investment institutions will have a relatively good impact on the market. But they are paid in legal currency. Their purpose is still to earn the dollar itself. First release | Baidu promotes the online collection of 246 museums on the chain: Golden Finance News, recently, Baidu Super Chain and Baidu Encyclopedia, based on blockchain technology to create a "cultural art chain" to promote the online collection of 246 museums in the encyclopedia museum plan winding. Based on the "Cultural Art Chain", Baidu will work with museums to promote the confirmation and maintenance of online collection copyrights, and at the same time explore digital trading methods for online collection copyrights, providing more comprehensive services and more rights and interests for cooperative museums. According to reports, this project will be carried out in phases. In the first phase, the chain entry and confirmation of online collections will be completed, and an exclusive copyright deposit certificate will be produced for each collection. Allow every user to view the certificate on the PC and WAP collection pages of the Baidu Encyclopedia Museum Project. In the future, Baidu will also promote the combined application of AI and blockchain technology in the cultural and museum field to ensure that the on-chain data matches the collections, laying the foundation for subsequent digital transactions of image copyrights of collections. [2019/1/30] The last type of institution is the configuration institution. What is a configuration agency? It seems that everyone has recently heard about a company microstrategy. Basically all listed companies abroad, domestic listed companies are the same, large listed companies will have a very large pool of funds, they have their own cash flow, and need to manage their own strategic reserves. As a company, Apple is really rich, because its cash position has surpassed that of developed countries in the world. Apple itself needs to do an investment preservation thing. Many listed companies in foreign countries are now slowly using Bitcoin as an asset allocation. Many of them may have originally bought government bonds or stocks of other companies or stock indexes. Now slowly there are many other listed companies, and now medium-sized listed companies are beginning to use Bitcoin as a table for asset allocation. Why? We have done a lot of correlation research. From the current point of view, Bitcoin is the least correlated asset compared with other assets. As an asset allocation, when there is a large volatility, everyone can avoid falling and rising at the same time. We found that when the really big US dollar liquidity crisis came, even gold fell together. This is also a starting point for many long-term allocation institutions to allocate Bitcoin. The starting point is that the volatility of future assets is getting lower and lower, and the correlation of prices can have a very low correlation with all other dollar-denominated assets. Once this kind of allocation organization comes in, I think it will have a very strong promotion effect on the halving cycle of Bitcoin. We have watched a lot of price volatility and trends, and we found that this time the lower limit of Bitcoin is getting higher and higher. Personally, I don’t think there will be more than a retracement in the big cycle of the rising bull market structure. Basically, there will be a retracement of more than 35% every time. After the allocation agency comes out, the probability of retracement at this level will become smaller and smaller. Other currencies are getting weaker and weaker against Bitcoin. The market value of Bitcoin has also started to rise very steadily for a long time. When these allocation institutions come in, because their currency holding period becomes very long, an asset will undergo a structural change in its attributes. This cycle may have started in 18 years. Whether our financial sector or the regulatory department made a very subjective decision, I think it should be the correct decision. In terms of their interests, I took the initiative to choose to close the gate. All the liquidity will start to flow out, and our market will become a liquid internal market where deposits and withdrawals are difficult. We will now see that the current market is completely a futures market or a market dominated by the non-spot market. A lot of non-spot liquidity has flowed to large overseas futures exchanges like BitMex. You can still count as overseas exchanges, after all, they are not subject to domestic supervision. There is also a third type of institutional allocation institution I just mentioned. They have an increasingly powerful effect of raising the lower limit in this market. Seeing the currency holdings of all listed companies in the United States, there are Square, Paypal, It is all U.S. legal currency without hindrance to the deposit. In the future, Bitcoin as an allocation asset will be like a black hole, and the legal currency can be issued infinitely. In our view, fiat currency is a long-term worthless thing. Fiat currency cannot maintain purchasing power itself. When institutions come in to hedge the risk of fiat currency in these allocation forms, they will push up the upper line. Many of their addresses on the chain are completely clear..


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