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Analysis: Why Bitcoin Price May See Big Volatility in Early December.



On December 1, after the weekly and monthly closes, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) will face two key events. The upcoming week is especially noteworthy as it could be the first red week since late September. The monthly line will be significant because if the price of Bitcoin stays above $13,791, it will mark the highest closing price in the history of Bitcoin. Bitcoin Volatility Source: Cointelegraph Markets, Digital Assets Data There are three key factors that could cause Bitcoin’s volatility to spike at the weekly and monthly close. These factors are the general uncertainty surrounding the price of BTC, record futures trading activity and open interest, and an overly bullish weekly chart. Analysis: Three characteristics of cryptocurrencies make Bitcoin an attractive option for countries like El Salvador: Golden Finance Report, August 2021 World Bank reports that nearly half of the population in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is unbanked , which means they do not have access to bank accounts or other financial services. The unbanked cited the cost of maintaining an account, distance from financial institutions, lack of necessary documentation, and lack of trust as the most common reasons for being unbanked. Unbanked poses significant challenges, making it difficult for individuals to securely receive payments, store money, transfer funds out of the community, or obtain credit and credit ratings. In short, being unbanked makes it nearly impossible for individuals to conduct the day-to-day financial transactions that many of us take for granted. Cryptocurrencies are changing that by helping individuals access online financial services, such as savings apps, lending platforms, and even microinsurance solutions, through their mobile devices with far fewer barriers. And with lower fees than traditional financial institutions. It is these three characteristics of cryptocurrencies—accessibility, affordability, and anonymity—that make Bitcoin an attractive banking option for the unbanked in countries like El Salvador. (the bharat express news) [2022/2/14 9:49:24] Meanwhile, although bitcoin prices rebounded from around $16,500 on November 28, traders have turned cautious, expecting a near-term pullback . Analysis: "Time" magazine NFT sold out within 1 minute, a fair drop should avoid the use of first-come-first-served auctions: September 24 news, "Time" magazine sold out 4676 NFT within one minute, fast transaction Gas The fee once reached 9000 gwei. After the minting is complete, there are approximately 700 NFT holders. Paradigm researcher Anish Agnihotri claims the robots are at work. Agnihorti tweeted that the "Time" magazine NFT auction was sold out within 1 minute. why? Many people knew about the mainnet deployment ahead of time and were able to plan in advance to implement transactions using bots. How do people find contracts? 1. The source code of the website has the Rinkeby deployment address; 2. Find all the testnet minters of the Rinkeby contract; 3. Check the testnet Minter address on the mainnet; 4. Find the mainnet contract deployment from an address; 5. The contract has been verified. If NFT developers want to strive to achieve fairness, try this: limit the amount of minting per wallet; deploy with different addresses that are not linked; do not verify the contract until the minting starts; most importantly, do not use first-come, first-served (FCFS) auction. In general, this isn't an issue unique to this Drop. Any first-come, first-served NFT Drop is bound to experience the same level of bot activity and push the auction to the Gas market. Additional on-chain or off-chain information only makes bot activity easier. (The Block) [2021/9/24 17:02:56] There are two key trends that could drive Bitcoin's recovery. First, Guggenheim Investments, a global asset management firm with more than $233 billion in assets under management, won the right to invest $500 million in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust. Analysis: Bitcoin traders use high leverage to drive wild swings in cryptocurrencies: Analysts say traders who take on excessive risk in the unregulated cryptocurrency market are forced to sell cryptocurrencies as prices fall, in large part The above is what led to a 30% price drop and disruptions on major exchanges last week. According to, bitcoin traders unwound about $12 billion in leveraged positions last week, which wiped out about 800,000 crypto accounts. "Until leverage is balanced, a sell-off begets more sell-offs," said JMP analyst Devin Ryan, adding that leverage in the cryptocurrency market has been a big theme of heightened volatility. Ryan said that as the cryptocurrency market expands, he expects the influence of leverage to wane, especially as more institutional capital comes in. Another behind-the-scenes reason for selling bitcoin could come from the growing bitcoin lending market. The fact that Bitcoin is not regulated by a central bank is part of the reason it is so valuable to investors. Ryan said: "The crypto market is not as underpinned as other more traditional markets. In some ways, the crypto market is cleaner, they are not affected by the buyer of last resort." However, Ryan said that regulation can be seen as a validation of the crypto market , and may have a positive impact on digital assets. (CNBC) [2021/5/25 22:43:28] In the United States, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) do not yet exist. For most institutional investors, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is the first to enter point. Deribit reported that the news sparked a lot of buying activity in the options market. The company said: Analysis: Curve liquidity provider received more than $3 million in stolen funds from v1 yDAI vault: DeFi protocol Yearn Finance reported today that its v1 yDAI vault was hacked on February 5, with a loss of $11 million . But the hackers failed to get the most out of it, and Curve liquidity providers made more money from the attack. Banteg, the core developer of Yearn finance, later stated that hackers had stolen 513,000 DAI and 1.7 million USDT, and the rest existed in the form of CRV tokens. Aave founder Stani Kulechov said that the attack contained a complex vulnerability involving more than 160 transactions on multiple DeFi platforms, costing more than $5,000 in Gas fees. Venture capital investor Julien Thevenard noted that more than $3 million of the funds stolen from the vault were received by liquidity providers on DeFi lending platform Curve. Yearn finance core developer Banteg also said that Thevenard analysis is accurate. (Cointelegraph) [2021/2/5 18:57:49] "Bitcoin rebounded 2,000 from lows after reports of Guggenheim Macro Opps seeking to allocate $500 million were released over the weekend USD. Quiet weekend options market ignited." Analysis: Multiple red flags in Indian Supreme Court judgment text Industry outlook remains grim: Policy 4.0 Founder & CEO, EY India blockchain practice Former executive Tanvi Ratna wrote about "India's Supreme Court Overturning the Central Bank's Cryptocurrency Ban". Ratna pointed out that the judgment is not final (note: the central bank can still submit an application for review), and there are multiple red flags in the judgment text. Additionally, a draft law aimed at banning cryptocurrencies, submitted on February 28, 2019, is still likely to pass the Indian parliament. Ratna's analysis of the 180-page judgment found that, in essence, the entire judgment hinges on whether the central bank violated a fundamental right enshrined in Article 19(1)(g) of the Indian Constitution - to engage in Freedom of any occupation. The Supreme Court concluded that the central bank’s measures violated the provision by prohibiting the freedom of cryptocurrency trading service providers to practice their profession and that the prohibition measures were disproportionate to the existing threat. The ruling also concluded that the central bank failed to produce experimental data or other credible alternatives to substantiate the threat. In addition, one of the important reasons for the Supreme Court's decision is that "there is no law prohibiting cryptocurrencies", which means that once there is such a law, the judgment cannot be established. (CoinDesk) [2020/3/7] Second, high-net-worth investors and whales may buy on dips in anticipation of Monday. As the quantitative trader pointed out, in recent weeks, most of the buyer demand has come from the United States. Some speculate that the demand comes from the time-weighted average price (TWAP) algorithm commonly used by institutions and funds. Since the TWAP algorithm will be activated again on Monday, it may increase the demand for Bitcoin from buyers. Traders are often unsure of the direction of Bitcoin's price There is currently a high degree of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market, with traders divided on where the price will go next. Some believe that Bitcoin may have bottomed out over the weekend due to market trends. On Coinbase, for example, Bitcoin’s recent pullback has caused Bitcoin to go into the hands of stronger holders, said Avi Felman, head of trading at BlockTower. Excessive selling can occur during bull markets, especially since traders often look for reasons to sell. As a result, overleveraged buyers get locked in highs, leading to massive liquidations. But when traders expect more downside and market sentiment hits lows, Bitcoin tends to recover. Felman explained: “Bitcoin rebounded quickly after a massive sell-off on Coinbase. In my opinion, this shows that retail sales are slowly picking up. The switch from weak hands to strong hands has been very clear in the past 48 hours. In the bull market Pullbacks always give you plenty of reason to sell.” Additionally, various technical indicators suggest that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold on shorter time frames. For example, on the daily chart, Bitcoin’s relative strength index (RSI) is around 55. If an asset falls below 35, the asset is considered oversold. Thus, Bitcoin is in an awkward position as, like the weekly chart, the high time frame remains overbought. This has traders predicting that the $13,000-$14,000 support range could see a correction soon. This high level of uncertainty in the market could lead to increased volatility as new weekly and monthly charts open. Open interest on futures exchanges could increase again, raising the possibility of large price swings. Whales Become More Active in Bitcoin Futures Throughout the Bitcoin rally in recent weeks, activity on major Bitcoin futures exchanges has been increasing. Despite the recent decline, open interest on top futures trading platforms remains above $1 billion. When open interest is high, the likelihood of a short or long squeeze increases, which can lead to a spike in volatility. Bitcoin futures trading volume Source: Cointelegraph Markets, Digital Assets Data There has been a significant increase in Bitcoin futures trading activity, especially on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Interestingly, Arcane Research reports that the number of large traders with minimum holdings of more than 25 BTC has more than doubled in 2020. The Arcane researchers explained that this trend indicates an increase in institutional demand for Bitcoin. Trading activity on CME Group continues to increase, and accredited and institutional investors may experience heightened short-term volatility due to excessive trading volume. “Large traders hold at least 5 futures contracts equal to at least 25 BTC (5 BTC per contract). The average in 2019 was 45 large traders, without any significant growth throughout the year. However, This number has doubled in 2020, and two weeks ago we saw a new record 102 large traders. This is perhaps one of the best signs of increased institutional demand for Bitcoin exposure, and we already know that, like Paul Investors like Tudor Jones are part of a growing group at CME, which is now the second-largest futures market for bitcoin." While demand for bitcoin from institutional investors has been on the rise, futures Markets remain a major contributor to volatility. Cointelegraph reported earlier this week that when Bitcoin fell from $19,400 to $16,200, Binance Futures alone liquidated more than $400 million worth of futures contracts due to the impact of massive liquidations. A new weekly is a big variable Bitcoin will have a new weekly in the next 48 hours, but on a weekly time frame, this variable still shows overbought. The weekly RSI is 88, and when an asset's RSI exceeds 75, it is considered overbought. The weekly lines are also significantly above the short-term moving averages (MAs), namely the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages. BTC/USDT Weekly Chart (Binance) Source: Traders have been expecting a correction as the weekly chart is overly bullish. If Bitcoin consolidates above the short-term moving average, it will make the rally more sustainable as it will give the derivatives market and spot buyer demand time to catch up. Also, Bitcoin's monthly chart is even more so (overly bullish) than the weekly chart. The 5-day MAs, 10-day MAs, and 20-day MAs are $13,129, $10,778, and $9,685, respectively, significantly below the current market price. But whether technical factors alone will correct Bitcoin technology in the foreseeable future remains uncertain. If institutional buyers like Guggenheim continue to make headlines by entering the bitcoin market, it could attract more buyers and retail investors in the short term. Historical Bitcoin Volatility Source: Highcharts First, Bitcoin’s price has historically been very volatile in December. While volatility was relatively low in December 2019, the end of 2017 and 2018 saw violent price swings, including an all-time high of nearly $20,000 and a bear market bottom, respectively. If a similar situation occurs, the price of bitcoin will fluctuate greatly before the end of the year.


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