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Can Bitcoin rise to $200,000 in the next bull market?



In the December 1st article, I wrote that if institutional investors believe that the potential and value of Bitcoin will catch up with or even exceed gold, then they will use the total market value of Bitcoin and the total market value of gold to measure the price of Bitcoin. In comparison, a relatively conservative estimate of the price of Bitcoin is obtained: 200,000 US dollars per coin.

A reader left a message about this, because I once estimated the price that Bitcoin could reach in the next round of market. My previous estimate ranged from $20,000 to $50,000. Is it more optimistic now? Up to $200,000?

I am indeed more optimistic about the future trend.

The first time I made an estimate of 20,000-50,000 US dollars was in 2019. At that time, I thought that Bitcoin’s market might be mainly driven by its four-year halving cycle, because there is no ICO in this round of halving. Driven by such factors, so only driven by the halving cycle, its market price will not be too large, so this estimate is given.

Co-founder of Gemini: The Federal Reserve continues to lay the foundation for the next round of Bitcoin bull market: Jinse Finance reported that Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss said that the Federal Reserve is continuing to lay the foundation for the next round of Bitcoin bull market. It is reported that the Federal Reserve is preparing to launch more economic stimulus measures to ease the economic downturn. [2020/7/23]

But this year’s development has greatly exceeded my imagination. I never imagined that the attitude of institutional investors towards Bitcoin will change so quickly. Large institutions are scrambling to buy Bitcoin this year. Such a volume is unmatched by retail investors. . Moreover, the situation of institutions buying Bitcoin has formed a FOMO sentiment among institutions.

Crypto Analyst: The Next Bitcoin Bull Market Will Happen When It’s Unexpected: Crypto analyst The Moon tweeted, I think the next Bitcoin bull market will happen when everyone least expects it. Will go up to $20,000. People don't expect it now. [2020/7/21]

Just recently, BlackRock (BlackRock) CEO Larry Fink said that although the cryptocurrency market is still relatively small compared to other markets, Bitcoin has "attracted the attention of many people." He believes that the nascent cryptocurrency asset class could "evolve" into a global market asset.

Voice | Jiang Zhuoer: The next round of bull market will start after the popularity bottoms out: Leibit Mining Pool Jiang Zhuoer just published an article on Weibo saying that according to his previous big cycle prediction, it is still a long time before the market is coldest, but it is still far away The bottom may not be far away. According to the law of the market, generally, the price of the currency will panic and bottom out first, then the popularity will gradually dissipate, and then the market will gradually cool down, and the price of the currency will bottom out earlier than the popularity. For example, in the last round of bear market, the currency price bottomed out at the beginning of 2015, but at that time the popularity was still relatively high, and all kinds of panic buying was quite lively. The real market was the coldest, and the popularity bottomed out at the end of 2015. After the popularity bottomed out Only then began the next round of bull market. [2018/12/6]

BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager with more than $7.4 trillion in assets under management. Its helmsman publicly published optimistic comments on cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin, representing the highest level of traditional investors and institutional investors.

This is the best explanation for the change in attitude of institutional investors and the fermentation of FOMO sentiment. It can be boldly imagined that from now to next year, there will definitely be more institutional investors entering the market, either explicitly or secretly, hunting for Bitcoin.

Therefore, the price of Bitcoin in the next year is likely to exceed the price range of 20,000-50,000 US dollars that I once estimated.

But whether the $200,000 price will be reached next year, no one knows, only time will tell. But I believe it is possible to see this price in the near future.

Based on such an event with increasing probability, I think that in any case, we should keep some chips in our hands to witness the arrival of this moment.

Regarding the development of the current round of the market, if we refer to the past historical laws, the market will reach its climax at the end of next year or the beginning of the next year.

Based on this prediction, I think it will be time for us to reap the results of the past two years of fixed investment from the middle of next year to the end of the year. At that time, we will gradually throw out the chips in our hands in batches, and then restart the fixed investment when the bear market comes. Pick up the chips return.

But how much do we have to throw away? It depends on how big the bubble in the price of Bitcoin will be at that time. The bigger the bubble, the more we have to throw away.

The $200,000 valuation is my threshold for measuring the size of this bubble. Because I think while the price of Bitcoin is likely to go up to this price in our lifetime, I don't think it will and shouldn't come so soon.

So if this price is reached next year or the beginning of the next year, then the bubble will be quite big. If this price cannot be reached, I will keep at least one-third of the chips in my hand no matter what.

Overall, next year's market is exciting. We will witness the madness of institutional investors in this round of market and Bitcoin will once again create history and create new highs.


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The article is contributed by Biquan Beiming, the columnist of Jinse Finance and Economics, and his remarks only represent his personal views.

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