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Golden Hardcore | Is BTC Price Really Driven by Wall Street? From the hourly data



Jinse Finance recently launched a column called Hardcore to provide readers with introductions or in-depth interpretations of popular projects. Recently, many investors believe that this round of Bitcoin bull market is the bull of Wall Street institutions. A recent article from Coin Metrics examines this view using hourly data on the price of bitcoin between Wall Street's open and closed markets.

Ari Paul, Luke Martin and other commentators have pointed out in the past few weeks that since late October, the rise in bitcoin prices has mainly occurred during the opening hours of the U.S. stock market. This could suggest that the rise in bitcoin prices has been fueled by a new round of buying by institutional investors who are active-zce during the day and relatively inactive at night and on weekends. We examined this view using Bitcoin hourly price data to get a closer look at Bitcoin’s price action during U.S. market hours. the

Golden Noon News | List of important developments at noon on December 3: 7:00-12:00 Keywords: EOS main network failure, US SEC, Filecoin

1. The EOS main network experienced a short-term failure and the cause of the accident is under investigation;

2. People's Daily Online's "China Blockchain Application Blue Book (2020)" was published;

3. After the end of Uni liquidity mining, the total lock-up volume of Sushiswap has increased significantly;

4. Circle CEO: The stablecoin bill will be a major setback for digital currency innovation in the United States;

5. The 24-hour transaction fee of Filecoin reached a new high of 126,047 FIL;

6. Grayscale BTC Trust increased its holdings by 2,499 BTC, and Grayscale ETH Trust held positions increased by 1.24%;

7. US SEC Commissioner Peirce: The SEC can learn from Wyoming's approach to regulating cryptocurrencies. [2020/12/3 22:57:53]

Golden Noon News | List of important developments at noon on October 11: 7:00-12:00 Keywords: digital renminbi, G20, phishing website

1. Chen Yulu, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank: Accelerate the research and development and controllable pilot of the central bank's legal digital currency.

2. The lottery result of the Shenzhen digital RMB red envelope has been released. To receive it, you must first download the "Digital RMB APP".

3. G20 will hold a video conference on the 14th to further discuss digital currencies.

4. The mayor of Chongqing met with Fan Yifei: Strengthen cooperation with Chongqing on digital currency pilot projects.

5. Fake Curve website for phishing A user was stolen 20 bitcoins.

6. Bitcoin adjusted slightly, with a daily high of $11,394.36 and a low of $11,264.80. [2020/10/11]

With the price of Bitcoin hovering around $20,000, one of the main narratives surrounding the price surge has been the arrival of institutional investors. Cryptocurrency and stock markets crashed in mid-March as the coronavirus pandemic began to spread, creating a new wave of institutional interest in Bitcoin amid the market wreckage. the

Golden Morning News | Overview of important developments overnight on February 12: 21:00-7:00 Keywords: Federal Reserve, Lagarde, hackers, Germany

1. Chairman of the Federal Reserve: The US dollar may face systemic risks brought by digital currencies;

2. Lagarde: I hope to assess whether the central bank's digital currency can provide clear uses for the public;

3. U.S. authorities accuse the operator of a “cryptocurrency trading club” of defrauding 150 investors;

4. Foreign media: The chairman of the Federal Reserve expressed support for private cryptocurrency transactions;

5. Report: The hacker group Outlaw is active-zce again and has upgraded its kit;

6. The German Bank of Munich intends to launch tokenized securities based on Stellar Lumens;

7. BitPay and POS partners launch in-store encrypted payment services;

8. Report: North Korea's activities through cryptocurrency have caused Internet usage to surge by 300% in three years;

9. BTC is now at $10,207, an intraday increase of 0.41%, and mainstream currencies generally rose. [2020/2/12]

In early May, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones announced that he would invest more than 1% of his assets in Bitcoin. He explained that he sees Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat inflation, saying that “central banks have stated that the inflation target for fiat is 2% per year.”

Jinse Finance live report Zhong Hong, Dean of Ivy League Research Institute: Use blockchain to create a shared education ecology without walls: Jinse Finance live report, held at the Tsinghua University Blockchain Education and Industry Innovation Summit and the establishment of Ivy League At the conference, Zhong Hong, dean of the Ivy League Research Institute, said that China faces high resistance in the field of education and scientific research to overtake a technological power. The university on the chain of the wall uses decentralization to create an educational community and a shared educational ecology, and uses innovative methods to bring about changes in the field of education. [2018/5/27]

As central banks increasingly print money in response to global economic woes, the narrative of Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation has become popular. In August, MicroStrategy, a public company with a market capitalization of $1.2 billion at the time, announced that it had purchased $250 million worth of bitcoin as a "capital allocation strategy." "Investing in cryptocurrencies not only provides a reasonable hedge against inflation, but can also be expected to earn a higher rate of return than other investments," they said in a statement.

In November, billionaires and investors Bill Miller and Stanley Druckenmiller joined the column, publicly stating that they own Bitcoin and recommend Bitcoin. Both compared bitcoin to gold, with Miller adding that he thinks inflation is “returning,” “due to the Federal Reserve’s “manipulation of the money supply.”

A few weeks later, a senior analyst at Citibank predicted bitcoin could reach above $300,000, dubbing it "21st century gold" in a leaked note to institutional clients.

Besides billionaires, payment service providers are also increasingly involved in the crypto market. On October 8, Square announced a $50 million investment in Bitcoin. On October 21st, PayPal officially announced that it would launch “a way for customers to buy, hold and sell certain cryptocurrencies within the PayPal Wallet.” Bitcoin was priced at $12,850 on October 21st and has since risen to over $19,000 . the

Our analysis started in early November, when PayPal just announced support for Bitcoin, and Bitcoin started to rise to $20,000. Building on Luke Martin's chart, we examine Bitcoin's price action during US market hours using hourly data. The chart below highlights the price of Bitcoin during the NYSE open, shown in green. Stock market closing times (such as evenings, weekends, and the Thanksgiving holiday) are left blank (i.e., not highlighted).

Results have been somewhat mixed, with prices fluctuating overnight at times, the most prominent example being November 5th. Overall, however, over the past month, bitcoin prices have risen more during U.S. market opening hours than during U.S. market closures. On average, Bitcoin gains around 0.1% per hour during market hours and around 0.04% during market hours.

Interestingly, while the price of Bitcoin traded sideways during the first three weekends of November, the last weekend saw a sharp increase. After its sharp decline on the night of Wednesday the 25th and during Thanksgiving, this may have something to do with the huge gap in CME Group's Bitcoin futures at the end of the month. Bitcoin prices rose sharply on Monday, Nov. 30, after markets reopened. the

Source: Coin Metrics Reference Price

In contrast, during Bitcoin’s bull run to new all-time highs in November 2017, price action was more diffuse. Specifically, in November 2017, there was an increase in overnight trading volume after the U.S. markets were closed, and weekend volatility increased. The average hourly return is around -0.13% when the US markets are open, and around 0.11% when the US markets are closed.

Source: Coin Metrics Reference Price

Comparing two months is a relatively small sample size and does not necessarily provide a definitive answer. However, we are starting to see some interesting evidence that more and more agencies are getting involved, and will continue to investigate and dig deeper.

Original: Signs of Institutional Investors


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