Blockchain "Prophet" Andrew Keys' prediction of Ethereum in 2021

Andrew Keys, the managing partner of DARMA Capital, has made predictions about the development of the industry in the next year every year since 2016. Because of the high accuracy of the predictions, he is called the "forecaster".

During Consensus 2021, Andrew Keys gave a short interview about Ethereum and DeFi.

1. How do you understand the second full virtual consensus? Do you want to continue to see this form when the world returns to normal? Any thoughts on virtual worlds replacing real life?

Andrew: You can call me corny, but I kind of miss the direct connection between people and look forward to attending in person next year.

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What's great about the fully virtual consensus is that it means that people can access the subject matter expertise that goes into the consensus from anywhere in the world.

2. Many people say that ETH is "ultra-sound money". Do you agree with this statement? Or is this just wishful thinking?

Andrew: I totally agree with that statement. There are currently unprecedented assets on Ethereum, and its value lies in its three core attributes:

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Capital Assets: Owners of ETH own a portion of the fees of the Global Settlement Layer.

Consumable assets: ETH is a fuel, a digital commodity. A certain amount of ETH is "burned" for every step of calculation in Ethereum.

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Store of value assets: ETH can be freely traded, or used as collateral in the digital economy.

Two key catalysts for increasing the value of Ethereum include:

One is EIP 1559, in which ETH is burned for every calculation and storage transaction;

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The second is the transition to PoS, which helps reduce the “sales pressure” associated with proof-of-work mining costs such as electricity, hardware, and real estate. Faced with these pressures, most miners had to sell 75% of their mines to pay their monthly fees.

3. More and more people believe that traditional financial people know more about Ethereum than Bitcoin. Is this a repeat of the "Blockchain, not Bitcoin" debate?

Andrew: Let me give a simple example of the usefulness of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is digital gold with a $10 trillion market cap (TAM).

With Bitcoin, Xiao Ming can send peer-to-peer value to Bao Xiaohong, but Bitcoin is scarce, which is also proven.

This use is great, Bitcoin is the source of the blockchain, but we can do more with the next generation of blockchain databases.

Ethereum is the foundation of the digital economy with a market cap of $270 trillion. Ethereum digitizes all assets (commodities, fiat currencies, stocks, derivatives, insurance policies, and prescriptions) as well as financial instruments (loans, derivatives, and exchanges) and legal agreements (employment, unions, purchase orders, and investments).

4. What is your investment thesis?

Andrew: We are witnessing the birth of the digital economy.

Ethereum is the only blockchain in the world that can become the foundation of the digital economy, and the assets on Ethereum are unprecedented.

In order to increase usage, we invested in Ethereum and promoters around Ethereum (such as Layer 2 scaling solutions).

5. You call Coinbase the AOL of the Web 3.0. what's next

Andrew: The market value of Ethereum will surpass that of Bitcoin in 2022.

6. Decentralized exchanges are growing rapidly, but there are concerns that these exchanges are nothing more than a way to financialize token offerings. When will DEXs support actual capital deployment and affect real finance?

Andrew: DeFi has surpassed $100 billion in total value locked, Ethereum settled $1.5 trillion in transactions in Q1 2021... the actual capital deployment is now underway.

Last month, the European Investment Bank, Goldman Sachs and Societe Generale all issued bonds in ETH. These entities need to pay operating expenses in ETH.

7. You are known for your yearly Ethereum predictions. Which predictions have been correct so far?

Andrew: I'll respect the opinions of fact-checkers, but in my opinion, all of these predictions have come true to some extent.

I'm especially proud that 2021 is the breakthrough year for Layer 2 solutions.

What we’re seeing now at Layer 2 — particularly the advancements in finality and security — makes me more confident than ever about the commercial viability of blockchain-based applications.

8. Is there any prediction on when ETH 2.0 will be launched?

Andrew: As of January 31, 2022.

Source: CoinDesk

By Benjamin Powers

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