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First release | Follow-up trend analysis of blockchain after 521



This article was originally created by the little brother of Future, authorized by Jinse Finance to publish.

The 519 currency circle collectively experienced a large-scale one-day halving market that was more violent than 312, and the entire industry has also fallen into a state of uncertainty and panic. Due to the unclear policies and regulations that may lead to large-scale sell-offs of miners, irregular large-scale liquidation of mortgage lending, investor panic and other factors, this incident has jointly led to the occurrence of this incident.

On May 20, Cathie Wood, founder of the ARK Fund, believed that Bitcoin would rise to $500,000. Musk posted a diamond hand on his personal social media account, which means he is not afraid of volatility. It seems that the market has reached a watershed of opinions within a day. Game situations continue to occur, long and short diverge, and fundamentals fluctuate. However, at this time, it is even more necessary to use first principles to judge the essential development route of the entire industry. The first principle is also one of the reasons why Elon Musk can reduce the cost of the SpaceX rocket dozens of times. This is a kind of ability and inspiration that can directly see the essential problems, and push forward or reverse to find the best solution.

LBank Blue Shell launched BOSON at 16:50 on April 9: According to the official announcement, LBank Blue Shell will launch BOSON (Boson Protocol) at 16:50 on April 9, open USDT transactions, and open recharge at 16:00 on April 9. Withdrawal will be available at 16:00 on April 12. Open the recharge transaction BOSON at the same time as going online to share 10,000 USDT.

At 16:50 on April 9th, LBank Blue Shell opened the deposit transaction BOSON to share 10,000 USDT. The net recharge amount of the user is not less than 1 BOSON, and the USDT airdrop reward equivalent to 1% of BOSON can be obtained according to the net recharge amount; the trading competition will be ranked according to the user's BOSON trading volume, and the top 30 can be based on the proportion of personal trading volume Divide USDT. For details, please click the official announcement. [2021/4/9 20:02:26]

Regarding the industry trend after 521, I would like to analyze and make analogies from the two perspectives of fundamentals and technical speculation.

First release | imKey officially supports Filecoin, becoming the first batch of Filecoin hardware wallets: On December 1, with the launch of imToken2.7.2, imKey supports Filecoin simultaneously, becoming the first batch of hardware wallets in the industry to officially support FIL. As one of the priority projects supported by imKey's multi-chain, Filecoin has become the fifth public chain after the four public chains of BTC, ETH, EOS and COSMOS.

It is reported that the imKey team has fully launched the multi-chain support plan in Q4, planning to implement all public chain projects that imToken has supported. This imKey upgrade update does not need to replace hardware, does not involve firmware upgrades, and can be automatically upgraded through the application (Applet). Realize imKey's support for Filecoin and FIL's token management. [2020/12/2 22:52:32]

1. The attitude of policy supervision. From a local point of view, China is still in a very cautious period of comprehensive strategy to prevent systemic financial risks. Therefore, at this time, China’s supervision is still at the end of embracing the blockchain for digital currency and blockchain. , the conservative state of the tentative digital currency. This state may continue until DECP and foreign exchange can introduce a relatively controllable control method, and the transaction may not be fully opened. At the U.S. level, it is foreseeable that the SEC will increase the implementation of controllable supervision of digital currency, but also accept digital currency on a larger scale. Gary Gensler himself is also a digital currency expert, and has participated in the design and development of a top 50 public company. chain, so it is good news for the entire industry, especially for the long-term development of compliance projects.

First release | Players who reach level 22 in "Let's Catch Monsters" will have access to exclusive cat gameplay: Today, Tencent launched the first blockchain game "Let's Catch Monsters". After verification by Jinse Finance, players who reach level 22 in the game will You will be exposed to the exclusive cat gameplay, not the level 15 previously announced by the official. Except for the 0-generation cats summoned by the cat-attracting bell and some exclusive cats rewarded through operating activities, all cats in the game are unlinked by default. Unchained cats cannot be sold, nor can they enter the market to be paired with other players; but you can use these cats to match with your QQ/WeChat friends to produce new kittens. Use the prop "Tianshu Pen" to record your cat to the blockchain. After the cats are recorded in the blockchain, these cats can enter the market, earn coupons through pairing, or sell to earn coupons. Whether the exclusive cat is chained or not does not affect its gain effect. But only after being on-chain, it can reproduce and trade with all players in the server.

The exclusive cat gameplay in "Let's Catch Monsters" is based on Tencent's blockchain technology, and the virtual digital assets in the game are effectively protected. In addition, based on Tencent's blockchain technology, cats can also breed freely, and use blockchain technology to store and never disappear. [2019/4/11]

Therefore, from the perspective of fundamentals and first principles, under the general trend of technology application, big countries will eventually move towards the final result of vigorously supporting digital currencies under relatively legal and compliant supervision. Companies are also bound to adopt and accept digital currencies as payment methods on a large scale. This is an almost inevitable result, and the policy bits and pieces in the process of deriving from the inevitable result have created fluctuations and arbitrage space at the market level. However, domestic short-term regulatory policies, especially those at the mining farm level, are still unclear, and there is still a fundamental risk of being suddenly sold by miners, but it is a good thing in the long run.

First Release | Antminer S17 Performance Exposure Using new heat dissipation technology and global optimization customization scheme: Jinjin Finance News, a few days ago, Bitmain’s upcoming Antminer S17 performance exposure. According to Moments, the product manager of Antminer S17, the new product will adopt a new generation of heat dissipation technology and global optimization and customization solutions. It is understood that the heat dissipation technology may refer to the packaging technology of the chip, or it may be the heat dissipation structure design of the machine. As for the "global optimization and customization" plan of the S17 product, no details were disclosed. There are voices commenting that this may be a preparation for the decisive battle of the wet season. [2019/3/22]

So, from this point of view, I personally support the 1/2 inference of Cathie Wood. After seeing the essence, all that remains is to wait for time to prove.

2. At the level of capital volume and ETF, as of May 21, the total market value of the overall digital currency is only 1.74 trillion. If you exclude the halving of the past few days, the overall X2 market value is less than 4 trillion. Compared to the US stock market alone, this is a very small market value, so in terms of capital volume, there is still a lot of money that has not entered the digital currency field, and most of the market value is still concentrated in Bitcoin At present, in the Alternative Investment ratio recommendations of major investment banks, the allocation ratio generally does not exceed 5%. From this point of view, it is true that the total market value still has a lot of room for growth, but it is different for the specific token or project to rise.

IMEOS debut EOS Go announces two new check-in conditions:According to Jinse Finance partner IMEOS report: Today, EOS Go announced two new check-in conditions on steemit:

1. Plan to ensure security: whether the candidate node publishes an article on steemit to introduce the node’s security method and plan. The “safety method” standard is an opportunity to show EOS voters the knowledge of security best practices and the organization’s implementation plan;

2. Position: Describe the position of the node to share inflation rewards and/or distribute dividends to EOS token holders (candidate nodes are published on steemit). The following two issues are mainly elaborated:

Will the organization provide payments to EOS token voters for any reason, including BP elections and community advice?

Does the organization have a written no-ticket payment policy? If so, please provide a link. [2018/4/27]

An important way to introduce more hot money is the specific time when the U.S. stock market will open the BTC ETF and whether China will open eft or other types of compliance direct trading models in the future. I personally think that this is also an inevitable final result, so from the long-term perspective of capital volume, more cash flow will inevitably enter the blockchain field.

3. At the cognitive level, I believe that those who have done in-depth research have discovered the essential difference between this round of bull market and the last round of bull market, which is the long-term thinking that institutions enter on a large scale. In 2017, most of the institutions that rushed in were the ones that made red-eyes for speculating and making money. Some domestic traditional well-known large institutions were cut off by the project for a round, but this round of bull market is very different. There are enough institutions with long-term perspectives Funding is provided as a moat at the basic level, so this round of bull market personally believes that Bitcoin will be a long-term and slow bull market, but there may be a trend of sharp rise and fall in the speed of fomo speculation for different small currencies.

The overall cognitive level has been greatly improved, including the out-of-circle science popularization brought by NFT, the combination of art, real estate, metaverse music, etc. The combination of more and more fields has also made the application scenarios of the overall blockchain more and more mature hair. Although many outsiders are still ignorant of Bitcoin and the blockchain, it is precisely because there are still people who do not know that there is more room for further exploration and expansion. At present, a relatively unified moat thinking has been formed at the level of large institutions, which is very important and meaningful to the fundamentals of the entire industry.

The degree of panic brought about by 519 is indeed greater than that of 94 and 312. Most of the market value was cut in half in one day, and contracts worth tens of billions of dollars were liquidated. It was indeed an unprecedented surprise attack. But there is also some reasonable logic here. For example, the large-scale DEX animal park has caused a lot of speculative funds in the secondary market to be transferred to DEX. The market value has been relatively inflated. Similar to how we build blocks, pulling out a few load-bearing blocks midway is naturally more likely to cause a temporary crash.

And this kind of crash also has an advantage, that is, it allows the chips to change hands quickly, makes low-level profit-seekers panic sell, and increases the average cost of new entrants, thereby further increasing the low price of the foundation at the basic level, so that in the follow-up market Get further price and value enhancement advantages in the trend.

If only from the perspective of technical analysis of the K-line chart, this wave of crashes also has a multi-period long-term trend deviation, which is an inevitable washing process (the picture below is only the BTC daily chart, Boll normal distribution The value is adjusted to the 99% statistical interval), and then the trend adjustment time is as little as 2 weeks and as many as several months. But the long-term trend personally thinks that it will not change

1. Judging from the general situation and general trend from the perspective of fundamentals, the follow-up blockchain will always be in an upward trend, and this trend will continue for a longer period of time as the application technology is improved.

2. From the perspective of short-term supervision and policy fundamentals, the situation is not clear and not very clear, but the ultimate goal of the policies of various countries is still for the stability of the financial system and better development in the future. So these are also good things in the long run.

3. The attitude of mines at the short-term mining level will affect the sudden trend of short-term price comparisons, so I personally suggest not to use high-leverage mortgage leverage in the short-term for operations. After all, if you use 10 million, you still have 1 million if it falls by 90%. The number of coins has not changed. In the future, you may become 50 million with time. Hundreds of millions of assets were wiped out.

4. From the perspective of technical indicators, it has entered a predictable callback cycle. Whether it will further drop depends on the sentiment at the entire market level. For those who like arbitrage, they have entered a happiest volatility cycle. For long-term growth value lovers, it has entered a relatively difficult psychological game cycle, but I personally think that the problem is not big in the long run, please control the risk.

5. 521 생일 축하합니다

Note: This article is only a personal analysis point of view, and does not provide any investment advice. Investors are advised to judge carefully to prevent financial risks.


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First release | Follow-up trend analysis of blockchain after 521

This article was originally created by the little brother of Future.

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