China's mining pool still occupies the top three in the world Antminer S9 is far from the shutdown price

On May 21, at the 51st meeting of the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council chaired by Liu He, Vice Premier of the State Council and director of the Financial Commission, it was clearly stated that we must resolutely prevent and control financial risks, strengthen the supervision of financial activities of platform companies, and crack down on Bitcoin. Mining and trading behavior.

Affected by this news, Bitcoin and crypto currencies generally plummeted.

Regardless of the price impact, what is the impact of the Bitcoin computing power industry?

Here are a few public statements we've seen.

For example, LeBit Mining Pool (B.TOP) decided to stop providing mining machine purchasing services for customers in mainland China. For example, Huobi Mining Machine Mall decided to suspend the provision of relevant services for users in mainland China.

Let's take a look at the overall situation through a set of on-chain data.

Foundry CEO: Doesn't think Chinese miners are a clear threat to the Bitcoin network: Digital Currency Group announced this week that its new subsidiary, Foundry, will invest $100 million in mining Bitcoin in North America in the coming months. Foundry CEO Mike Colyer said that this move is conducive to balancing the dominance of Chinese miners in the Bitcoin network, but he does not think that the dominance of Chinese miners is a big threat to the Bitcoin network. (decrypt)[2020/8/29]

First look at the computing power of the entire network.

According to QKL123 data, on May 13, the average computing power of the Bitcoin network reached a record high of 197E. On May 22, the figure dropped to 136E. From the data point of view, the decline was 31%. Since the data itself is predictive data, the 31% decline in any case shows that the computing power is indeed declining. But if we compare the changes in the computing power of Bitcoin’s entire network in the past year, there is still a 46% increase.

Survey shows: 57% of Chinese miners believe that a large number of new BTC buyers will enter the market in the next 6 months: According to a survey on May 4 by the encryption service company RockX, 57% of Chinese miners It is expected that a large number of new bitcoin buyers will enter the market in the next 6 months. RockX conducted a survey of 42 well-known Bitcoin miners and members of the Asian mining community. More than 71% of respondents believe that market confidence in Bitcoin has been restored. In addition, 45% of respondents believe that the price of Bitcoin will remain between $10,000 and $12,000 in the next 6 months; nearly 24% of respondents believe that the price of Bitcoin will remain at $10,000 Around the U.S. dollar, the volatility is small; while more than 14% of respondents believe that the value of Bitcoin will exceed 15,000 U.S. dollars. (Cointelegraph)[2020/5/5]

How will computing power change in the future? According to BTC.com data, the next difficulty adjustment is expected to decrease by 3.89% in 5 days and 16 hours, which means that the average computing power of the entire network will drop.

Chinese miners encountered new difficulties after relocating to South Asia: According to news.bitcoin, digital currency miners from China were flocking to Southeast Asia such as Vietnam, Myanmar and Cambodia, but now they are caught in a new predicament. The main reasons are higher cost of accessories and operation and maintenance, complaints from residents, unstable power supply, etc. A Chinese miner in Cambodia said that because of these factors, he continues to lose money every month, but at the same time it is difficult to find mining safety zones in other South Asian countries. [2018/5/15]

What about mining pools? Chinese mining pools still occupy an absolute advantage. AntPool, F2Pool, and Poolin are the top three.

Within 24 hours, the computing power of the top mining pools has changed little, but Binance Pool has a huge increase of 10.22%, while Huobi.pool, which is also an exchange mining pool, has experienced a huge drop of 16.06%. BTC.TOP has seen an increase of more than 30%. The mining pool belongs to Jiangzhuoer.

Charles Hayter, a former stock analyst at Citigroup, predicts that short-selling Bitcoin futures can "lock in" profits Coin futures can "lock in" profits, and more and more risk-averse companies in Europe and the United States will enter the "mining" industry like digital energy companies. Once a trend is formed, Western mining companies will begin to erode the computing power share of Chinese mining pools. At present, 80% of the hashing power is concentrated in China. [2017/12/25]

Previously, Grayscale founder Barry Silbert tweeted that Foundry USA has become the top five mining pools in the world, and the Bitcoin hash rate is rapidly shifting from China to North America. However, according to the latest data from BTC.com, the mining pool only ranks 11th. With the current computing power of the entire network and the price of Bitcoin, has any mining machine started to shut down, there must be. However, we can see from the data of F2Pool that the current energy consumption ratio of bitcoin mining machines is within 100W/T, and the electricity cost is about 60%. profit margin

For example, the Antminer S9, this mining machine known as an artifact, has gone through several rounds of bulls and bears, and once entered the "shutdown time" at 312 o'clock. But at present, the electricity cost of the mining machine accounts for 62%, which is far from reaching the shutdown price.

What do practitioners think about China's computing power industry?

Jiang Zhuoer said that the current situation of Bitcoin mining is actually not as bad as everyone thinks.

He further analyzed that, combined with the context of the "Financial Stability and Development Committee" and the minutes of the meeting, "resolutely prevent and control financial risks... crack down on Bitcoin mining and trading behavior, and resolutely prevent the transfer of individual risks to the social field." Visible meeting The main spirit is "prevention and control of financial risks", which mainly prevents financial and social capital from intervening in mining, which in turn leads to the transmission of individual risks to the social field. That is to say, individual mining is allowed, and you can bear the profit and loss yourself, but financial capital is not allowed to intervene in mining, which will cause social risks due to losses.

In addition, Jiang Zhuoer also believes that for mining machines, there is no risk of being seized unless they steal electricity for mining. The biggest blow of the meeting minutes to the mining industry is the blow to the large mines, but the blow to the entire bitcoin mining is not so big. The worst case may be that the large mines are closed and the bitcoin mining industry returns to The state from 2014 to 2015 - small miners put a few mining machines at home to dig, medium miners find a warehouse to put dozens of mining machines to dig, or find a factory to put hundreds of mining machines to dig, big miners find a remote place For small hydropower that cannot be sold, put one or two thousand mining machines to mine it. Therefore, Bitcoin mining will continue normally, but the main body of mining in China has changed from large-scale mines to home miners and small and medium-sized miners. Even if this transition causes 50% of the mining machines to be inoperable, there is no problem for the Bitcoin system. But in the long run, if Chinese regulation opposes mining, then Chinese mining machine manufacturers will basically sell mining machines abroad. Selling domestically = violating supervision, selling abroad = earning foreign exchange through export, anyone will sell abroad, and finally make China's computing power flow In foreign countries, after the de-Sinicization of transactions, the de-Sinicization of computing power has been completed. And in this process, the Bitcoin system will not have obvious feelings - except that you look at the mining pool rankings and change a number of European and American mining pools.

Mint 37 Degrees said that the computing power of Bitcoin has begun to drop, and the country has begun to catch up with the custody of Bitcoin mining machines, and the computing power is likely to plummet. In the next few months, the irresistible force will come down, the mining circle will be reshuffled, and the sky will change drastically. But there are great opportunities in this kind of great change, and heroes emerge from troubled times.

Wan Hui said that after this time, the de-sinicization of computing power, de-sinicization of pricing power, and even de-sinicization of liquidity will be accelerated. Sincerely, the market outlook is promising.

In fact, at present, miners are generally still on the sidelines, waiting for more policy news. After all, no detailed documents have been seen yet. "Stay the same for all the changes," they say.

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