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Bitcoin may explode again in the second half of the year



After a massive first quarter rally, Bitcoin (BTC) has been relatively quiet so far in the second quarter, even as Ethereum (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE) and other cryptoassets exploded.

In 2020 and early 2021, changing macroeconomic conditions helped fuel BTC’s gains and brought in a new wave of institutional investors. Now, macroeconomic conditions may once again shift in favor of BTC.

After strengthening during March, the US dollar (DXY) weakened during April and fell again last week. Many investors now expect monetary easing to last longer than previously thought amid signs that the economy is still recovering. Historically, BTC has risen when the dollar weakens. In the short term, this could be good news for BTC.

The number of Bitcoin Lightning Network nodes reached 18,061: According to 1ML data, the current number of Bitcoin Lightning Network nodes reached 18,061, an increase of 7.30% in the past 30 days; the number of channels was 40,065, an increase of 5.9% in the past 30 days; the network capacity reached 1,154 BTC, up 6% over the past 30 days. [2021/3/22 19:05:35]

Additionally, data shows that the BTC market is in healthier conditions than it was a few months ago. Open interest in BTC perpetual contracts is at its lowest level in months, suggesting that leverage is being pulled from the system. This lays a healthier foundation for the next upward move in the BTC market.

Bitcoin’s hashrate surged to record highs in early May after a sharp drop in April when regional power outages in China forced some mining machines offline. The drop spooked some investors, who sold fearing the possibility of a bigger drop. But in less than a month, the computing power has fully recovered and returned to a higher level than before the drop.

Australian comedian Jim Jefferies holds 4 times as many bitcoins as Musk: Australian comedian Jim Jefferies holds more bitcoin than billionaire Elon Musk. Jefferies recently revealed, “I have a bitcoin. I bought it on the Robinhood app just to see what the hell is going on with this cryptocurrency.” Jefferies has yet to transfer his coins to the wallet.

Jim Jefferies holds 1 BTC ($9612), while Musk confirmed in May that he only holds 0.25 BTC ($2347). Jefferies’ net worth is estimated to be close to $9 million, meaning his cryptocurrency investments represent just 0.1 percent of his assets, less than billionaire Paul Tudor Jones’s 1 percent. (Cointelegraph)[2020/7/9]

The increase in hashrate is a healthy sign of Bitcoin's continued growth. Furthermore, the rally shows that Bitcoin is resilient and able to recover quickly after surprises.

Voice | Fundstrat chief analyst: Bitcoin reaching $10,000 will trigger a real FOMO effect: According to bitcoinist news, Fundstrat chief analyst Tom Lee said that the real FOMO (fear of missing out) effect will start when Bitcoin reaches $10,000 . At the same time, he also predicted that the BTC price will reach $10,000 sometime this year. [2019/5/30]

While retail investors have been piling into DOGE and other small-cap crypto assets, retail investors in BTC continue to grow. The number of addresses holding relatively small amounts, between 0.01 and 1 BTC, has increased by 710,000 since the start of the year, with a big spike in April. In 2020, the number of addresses holding between 0.01 and 1 BTC has increased by a total of 610,000.

Quotes | Bitcoin is back above 8000USDT: Huobi quotes show that Bitcoin has returned to above 8000USDT and is now at 8028USDT. [2019/5/15]

In another sign, the value of on-chain transfers surged to an all-time high in April. A total of $447 billion was transferred in value in April, compared with $366 billion in March and $319 billion in February.

Despite relatively depressed price action, the Bitcoin ecosystem continues to expand. On May 5, NYDIG announced that BTC will enter hundreds of U.S. banks later this year. Bank customers are expected to be able to buy, sell and hold BTC through their existing accounts, potentially bringing in many new investors. In another sign of growth, Square recently shared that BTC accounted for 15% of Cash App’s first-quarter gross profit, up from 8% a year ago.

Haiyin Capital Wang Yuquan: Four "New Viewpoints" on Bitcoin and Blockchain: Wang Yuquan, the founder of Haiyin Capital, a famous investor, mentioned his bitcoin and blockchain in the column of "Get" Frontier Technology on the weekend He said: first: the revolutionary nature of the blockchain is indeed great; second: the popularity of the blockchain is actually very small; third: the entrepreneurial opportunities of the blockchain are actually very small; fourth: the regional Entrepreneurs of the blockchain seem to be full of impetuousness now. [2018/3/6]

Bitcoin technology is also undergoing major upgrades. Activation of Taproot has officially begun, as miners have started signaling support. Taproot, expected to go live later this year, will bring a number of major improvements to the way bitcoin transactions work, including reduced fees and increased privacy. It will also lay the groundwork for enhanced smart contract functionality and improvements to the Lightning Network.

With so much going on in the cryptocurrency space, it's easy to forget that Bitcoin is still growing rapidly. Given the positive momentum on most fronts, Bitcoin could see another surge in the second half of the year.

Ethereum (ETH) continued to breach all-time highs this past week, with on-chain metrics rising across the board as a result. The adjusted value of transfers increased by a whopping 149% week-over-week, averaging $31.9 billion per day, more than double BTC’s daily average of $14 billion. Fees also resumed rising, growing to $29.1 million per day. And daily active-zce addresses increased to over 803,000, a 6.3% increase in a week.

Let’s dive into some of the new metrics below. And, as always, you can explore and download our community data with our free graphing tool and formula builder.

The BTC age distribution band, also known as the "HODL wave," shows the supply of BTC grouped by the time since it was last moved on-chain. HODL waves give a macro view of how the BTC supply has changed over the years.

Looking up from the bottom of the chart, the red band shows the percentage of supply that was recently active, ranging from less than a day to 90-180 days. The "1-7 days" band refers to the percentage of total supply held for at least 1 day but less than 7 days, the "7-30 days" refers to the percentage of supply held for at least 7 days but less than 30 days, etc. .

In addition to the traditional market caps, we've added several new market cap versions. The Realized cap was launched in 2018, and it gives a longer-term, slow-moving measure of Bitcoin's total valuation. The Realized cap is calculated by individually valuing each unit of Bitcoin at its last traded price on-chain. Free-floating market capitalization calculates market capitalization by taking a more accurate measure of the free-flowing supply in the market.

The Market Cap to Realized Market Cap Ratio (MVRV) has historically been a relatively accurate indicator of local market cycles. We have now added free float MVRV to the community metrics, which adjusts MVRV to account for illiquid supply.

Finally, we added a set of supply distribution metrics. The chart below shows the percentage of the total BTC supply held by different ranges of addresses. Looking up from the bottom of the graph, the first bin shows the percentage controlled by addresses holding 0 to 1 BTC, and the next bin shows the supply controlled by addresses holding 1 to 10 BTC.


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