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If there is no more darkness, only light remains



Madman writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinctive features, no artificiality, and no exaggeration!

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Madman Says

Bitcoin has returned to above $40,000. The investors who saw the bear market panic and sold their chips before, and the investors who bravely bought the bottom below should have a very different psychology, because this is a 30% fluctuation. For most people, It is already a very large fluctuation. In the long run, the best way is to invest in value and ignore short-term fluctuations in the market, because only in this way can you not be driven by Mr. Market, otherwise it will be difficult for ordinary investors to resist their own human nature and toss to toss Go, lost to the market, from 2018 to now, the big pie has increased by 10 times, and there are very few people who can outperform this figure. Compared with those who are lying in the market, the efforts of these years have paid off. Therefore, in the market, choice is greater than hard work. Don't try to outperform the market, but choose a better embrace.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: Failure to raise the debt ceiling will damage the U.S. dollar's reserve currency status: On October 5, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that if the debt ceiling is not raised, the U.S. dollar's status as a reserve currency will be damaged, leading to an economic recession. She believes that October 18 will be the deadline for the debt ceiling, and the decision on the debt ceiling issue lies with Pelosi and Schumer. She supports bipartisan action to raise the debt ceiling. (Golden Ten) [2021/10/5 20:07:23]

Several data are still supporting the bull market:

The Bitcoin stablecoin supply ratio has hit a record low, which means that there are more stablecoins in the market to buy Bitcoin, and a lot of idle funds have begun to enter the market;

When the market started to rebound the day before yesterday, 668,000 ETHs flowed out from exchanges, the largest outflow since January 22 this year;

Yesterday, the centralized exchange continued to outflow tens of thousands of Ethereum, which changed from the previous high inflow state, and institutional buying continued to increase;

Purpose BTC ETF increased its holdings by 428 bitcoins, and currently holds 18,749 bitcoins, which are constantly locked up by institutions;

Jiang Zhuoer: If it is not BCH that beats BTC, then it is ETH: On February 14th, Jiang Zhuoer, CEO of LeBit Mining Pool, posted on Weibo: 1. BCH is the world currency designed by Satoshi Nakamoto. As envisioned in "The Denationalization of Currency", through currency competition, the excessive inflation of legal currency can be restrained, the great vision of benefiting the global economy, and protecting the people from inflationary exploitation. 2. BTC is now just an asset similar to a house. High currency prices, like high house prices, are a bad result of legal currency inflation. What can BTC do other than make the rich richer? 3. I admit that I have feelings for BCH, which is a taboo in investment behavior. For me, BCH is the light of mankind, and BTC is just a money-making tool. Even if BCH fails, its grand vision is not comparable to that of stinking BTC. 4. BTC that refuses to expand will be defeated by a large block currency that is actively expanding, and will decline forever like the philatelic market. If it's not BCH, it's ETH that beats BTC. 5. Among BCH and ETH, any victory over BTC is a victory for the small block faction of the expansion party, a victory for the religious faction of the market party, and a victory for the fundamentalist faction of the evolution party. [2021/2/14 19:44:24]

Yesterday, more than 54,000 bitcoins, worth 2.1 billion U.S. dollars, flowed out from the exchange. Retail investors frantically sold them, and institutions withdrew them when they bought them.

Wan Hui: Don’t put coins in MetaMask unless you want to sell them immediately: Dovey Wan, founding partner of Primitive Ventures, said on Weibo that the books of strong coins in your hands may have doubled many times. Remind the wallet security again. If it is not a coin that is going to be sold immediately, do not put it in MetaMask (if it is a large centralized exchange, it is fine), my operation is to import the "public key" of Trezor or Ledger to Metamask, highly authorized flow The fund part is placed in Metamask's own address, and the strong currency that needs to be held for a period of time is placed in a cold wallet that is synchronized with the Metamask public key, which can ensure the security of the currency. The safety of currency speculation is the first. [2020/8/30]

Ark Fund bought 160,000 shares of GBTC Bitcoin Trust, and institutions can be seen inside and outside the venue;

Bloomberg strategists remain bullish on Bitcoin reaching $100,000 as supply continues to decline;

Due to the closure of the mine, the Bitcoin computing power has dropped significantly for 11 consecutive days, and the selling pressure will weaken before the difficulty is adjusted;

Meng Yan: If the token economy is not integrated with the real economy, there will be no future: On April 10, Ystar founder Wang Donglin had a conversation with Meng Yan, a token economy design expert. During the dialogue, Meng Yan said: If the token economy does not follow the There is no future for the combination of the real economy, and the bridge between the token economy and the real economy is technology. Ystar is a technology platform dedicated to this. The value of traffic is committed to distributing a considerable portion of the revenue to the real creators of traffic—users.

He also said that Ystar's core digital assets have a reasonable value basis, and use algorithmic incentives to purchase production factors from users, thereby forming a large-scale collaboration, attracting more advertisements, more traffic, and promoting asset appreciation. This is a positive feedback effect. This is a simple but reliable logical closed loop. I have seen some successful cases before. Ystar has good potential, but it needs to meet many other conditions for real success. [2020/4/11]

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase rated Coinbase as an overweight, saying that it would rebound by more than 60%, which is how traditional institutions are optimistic about the encryption market from the side;

Voice | Dean of the National Institute of Financial Research of Tsinghua University: If the central bank does not issue digital currency, it will face greater pressure: Zhu Min, dean of the National Institute of Financial Research of Tsinghua University, said on the 22nd at the 2019 "Innovative Economy Forum" that digital currency is the future As a trend, if the central bank does not issue digital currency, it will face greater pressure. Zhu Min pointed out that the pressure mentioned above includes the pressure from the market. At present, various cryptocurrencies are emerging in the market one after another. Although these cryptocurrencies are not sovereign currencies, they are actually eroding the realm of sovereign currencies. The central banks of some small countries are particularly worried that if they do not issue digital currencies, the sovereign currencies of the countries in which they are located are likely to be marginalized. Many central banks around the world have begun to study digital currencies about five or six years ago, and countries including Canada, China, the United Kingdom, and Singapore are at the forefront in this field. (China News Network) [2019/11/22]

The CEO of Galaxy Digital believes that the Bitcoin ETF will be launched within a year, and this expectation will make institutions continue to buy.

In addition, it is the regulatory measures of various countries. When these regulations are fully implemented, it will be the time when the currency circle restarts the violent bull market. Remember that sentence: "If you can't kill him, you will definitely make him stronger!"

The Federal Reserve is evaluating the cryptocurrency policy at full speed, and the White House is also quickly studying to fill the regulatory gap;

UK Financial Industry Association calls for swifter and clearer rules for cryptocurrencies;

The Canadian Securities Commission blames Polonex for ignoring securities laws, and regulation is on the horizon;

Austrian Financial Authority warns against unlicensed cryptocurrency brokers;

Central Bank of Kuwait warns against investing in cryptocurrencies;

The President of Iran stated that the mining of cryptocurrencies will be prohibited until September 22. This policy is mainly due to the shortage of electricity in Iran;

The governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria is optimistic about digital currencies and wants to criticize unstable cryptocurrencies, and the encryption industry is still banned;

Our country's attitude towards mining farms and currency speculation has become relatively clear, and we must participate in the market within the framework.

Regulations in various countries have begun. This period of time will be the most difficult period before Bitcoin goes to sky-high prices. As long as it can survive, the light will come. In a dark day like this, looking at how strong the market is right now seems to have given us the final answer.

Nebraska officially approved the Digital Asset Bank Framework Act, making the state the second state that can license encrypted banks; the governor of Colorado expressed the hope that residents can use cryptocurrencies to pay taxes, making the state the first in the United States A state where taxes can be paid in various cryptocurrencies. The United States is running too fast, and the trend is irreversible. When the government and institutional interests are fully bound, it is difficult to have a second result other than rising.

The buddy who bought pizza with 10,000 bitcoins 11 years ago expressed his willingness to spend everything to buy bitcoins, and if he saw him fall, he would buy twice as much. This buddy's life is so interesting, full of dreams and regrets.

According to the survey, more than 25% of Australian respondents hope to pay wages in Bitcoin, which shows that Bitcoin is also a sweet pastry in the eyes of Australians. The global consensus will be further strengthened. Developed countries will go first, and developing countries will follow. Will come to relay.

The panic index is 22, same as yesterday, very good.

The discount rate of Grayscale GBTC is -12.57%, and the discount rate of ETHE is -4.33%.

USD/RMB broke through 6.4, hitting a new high since June 2018, which is good for A-shares and Bitcoin. The appreciation of the renminbi has caused foreign capital to flow into A-shares recently, and the trend in the second half of the year can be expected. Bitcoin is the basis for the continuous bull market of Bitcoin because of the continuous release and depreciation of the US dollar.


Today's rebound volume is not large, indicating that the market's selling pressure is not obvious, but there are more locked-in stocks around 41000-42000, so it is relatively difficult to break through this volume in the short term. This position needs tossing for a while. If the volume shrinks and breaks through, You can consider selling high to make a band, falling to around 36,000, it will be a good opportunity for those who are short-sighted to participate.


As strong as an old dog, the trading volume of Ethereum on the entire network has reached 20 billion US dollars, surpassing Bitcoin. At present, there is a certain resistance around 2900. The madman believes that Ethereum has a chance to reverse the trend directly after digesting a period of profit. Therefore, every time Callbacks can continue to buy.


The slot auction is about to start, and the overall trend will be fluctuating and rising, and it will not be too weak.


Ripple cooperates with the second largest bank in Oman to promote cross-border transactions between Oman and India. What Ripple has done is really terrible. The short-term trend has hit the pressure level, and it is expected to fluctuate and fall back.


It continues to strengthen today, and the self-rescue of funds is still in progress. At present, it has reached the pressure level.


One of the strongest in the mainstream is expected to be the first to get out of the reversal, and it is under pressure in the short term, and it is considering getting in the car after a callback.


This wave of rebound is weak and shock-based.


After hitting the pressure yesterday, it changed hands at the pressure position today, and it is expected to continue to strengthen after another 1-2 days.


Foreigners say that there are more and more dog spirits. I don’t know how long this consensus will last. If the market rebounds and there is no money to buy bottoms, it is recommended to switch positions.


Mark Cuban announced his support, and he has already stepped out of the reversal trend, and is expected to reach new highs in the future. He should be the leader of the entire network at present.


Rebound to the pressure level, there is a need for shock adjustment.


Not as strong as UNI and SUSHI, it can be regarded as quite satisfactory, and the overall linkage is the main focus.

Most of the currencies in the market have rebounded to the pressure level, so short-term selling pressure is a normal phenomenon. If they continue to explode upwards at night, they can be reduced in the short term. The probability of a direct market reversal is not high. Medium and long-term investors continue to lie down Death is the best policy.


After the plunge, should I buy ETH or BTC?

BTC: We said earlier that the support of Bitcoin is at $43,000. MicroStrategy CFO: Despite the market crash, MicroStrategy will continue to buy Bitcoin: On January 25th.

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