Gold everywhere? Accumulation and distribution of chips

Hello everyone, I am Pepe who is going to apply for a Meituan rider if I fall a little bit more. Haha, just kidding. But there are two extremes. I can't help you much, that is, to cheer you up when you are in doubt.

For the old leek, facing this kind of seemingly bottomless decline, he will feel better immediately and will not operate with emotions, but when he is in such a panic, he will also look for various comments and analysis Let’s see, I recently saw an overseas blogger’s BTC morphology analysis. Although I personally don’t agree with it, it’s still interesting and something to talk about, so I’ll bring it up for a little mention today.

The account name of this blogger is uncomplication. One of his videos at the end of April has already had 160,000 views. It is difficult for many vlogs of well-known big Vs in the overseas currency circle to reach this number. Visually, it is still being reposted and spread. His What did I say more than 20 days ago, mainly because I think that the trend of Dabing in the past few months is very consistent with a chip distribution pattern in Wyckoff's drum ticket theory, as shown in the picture above:

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Isn’t this a coincidence, isn’t it, but in fact there is still a slight discrepancy. The above picture was captured on April 20th, but in fact there was a wave back to above 56,000.

Richard Wyckoff was a well-known trader and pioneer of technical analysis at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century. One of the main thinking directions in his theory is to study the accumulation and distribution of chips. The premise is that the market is in certain It can be manipulated over time.

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His family also believes that behind the manipulation will not be an individual, it is more likely to be the result of a large institution that currently has a certain right to speak, or the result of all investors and emotions, but for convenience, it will influence the market. The mysterious power is simply called Composite Man (translated as composite man, you understand it as the "dog village" that everyone often talks about, and it may also work).

Behind the market fluctuations and shocks is the process of "Dog Village" constantly accumulating-distributing-re-accumulating. Then you can see in the above graph that it is divided into five stages, ABCDE, and each stage has a corresponding meaning. The original blogger gave a large section of principle reference article and he wrote it himself. It is relatively long. I put it at the end of the article as a reference for everyone who is interested. I will simply say it here.

In the first stage, the chips are collected at a low level and the market rises, and when it reaches a certain level, the release of the good will attract more attention, and BC (buying climax), such as the good buying of Tesla on February 8:

Only when there is more buying demand in the market can the big guys distribute the chips without lowering the price. The main goal of the second stage is to exhaust as much of the remaining buying demand as possible, and the market is dominated by shocks On the supply side, the supply will be greater than the purchase (Lenovo GBTC negative premium).

In the third stage, there will be a small climax, which may be attributed to the "bull market trap", which makes bullish investors think that the bull market will continue to exert its strength, and by the way induces the Air Force to give up its position and give it to the interest group "dog village" here accumulating short positions.

In the fourth and fifth stages of the market decline, more rebounds are weak at this time, until the next new period of chip accumulation may be on the way after the price drops significantly.

The original blogger also believes that there are signs of being manipulated in the pancake market. Whether this thing is a coincidence or a certain possibility exists, we don’t know, and I personally don’t believe in the above-mentioned morphological analysis, including the market. If you read other technical analysis theories, you will not use them as a basis if you look at them at most.

However, I also think that it is still necessary to keep an open mind. In fact, you can listen to all kinds of voices in the market, instead of just shouting that this time is different or blindly increasing your position when it is falling.

In addition, I would like to add some content-zce to the above theory:

1. The formation of theories like Wyckoff comes from the observation and study of the activities and routines of those financial institutions on Wall Street in the early years. They observed that many retail investors were repeatedly deceived. Therefore, he devoted himself to guiding the public to understand those "smart" The "real rules of the game" played by "money", after so many years, they may not be completely suitable for today's financial market, but for the encryption market, which is still wild and irregular, and there are many Wall Street figures, it is It’s not that there are similar routines, we don’t have evidence, but it doesn’t seem like a bad thing to know more.

2. The original blogger has repeatedly emphasized that the above-mentioned pattern does not specifically refer to the top signal. The fifth stage is unknown, and it can go down, up or sideways, so don’t panic just by looking at the picture. If the distribution has been completed, then There may be a period of recovery, and if the bull market is still there, the recovery will not be too long, and it will not be too extreme (to give retail investors more time to acquire chips, note that this is not necessarily the price space but the length of time), then it should be one or two It will be clear in a few months.

3. In the face of such a global free market, the possibility of various manipulations cannot be ruled out, but what we can do is to reduce being deceived by them, and thus suffer asset losses. How to do it is very simple, or HOLD, in fact, it doesn’t matter What kind of asset is it? If you want to look at it in five to ten years, the bull-bear indicator may really not be that important. You see, does the real stock market master really care about the cycle.

Either take a step back, at least you have to adjust to this:

Instead of this:

Eventually become the manipulated consumer in this market.

Conclusion

The original blogger actually thinks that our bull market is still there, but I only saw the current market state after I wrote most of the above content. I didn’t know what to say for a while, and even had to change the title-zce [cover my face], I don't know if the above content-zce is considered "appropriate to the occasion"?

In short, don’t panic when you encounter problems, first post a Moments, anyway, it’s useless to panic now, let’s just do it today, I will take it easy first, and continue to look at the market, if there is anything, I will add it tomorrow.

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