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Jiang Zhuoer: Stability overwhelms everything



Learning the most basic ZZ common sense is of great benefit to investment

1. The highest level of supervision, the most fundamental purpose is to maintain social stability, that is, [stability overrides everything]. As long as the society is not chaotic, everyone is working, earning more and earning less, losing more and losing less, all of which are only temporary. Before 1994, the market was full of chaos, and various ICO coins were flying all over the sky. If they were not stopped and allowed to develop, at the end of the bull market, the final result would definitely be the bankruptcy of a large number of retail investors and social instability. Therefore, the supervision took action, requiring the cessation of ICO, the withdrawal of issued ICO (according to the private placement price), and further requiring the closure of Chinese exchanges.

2. These measures have been carefully considered. The exchange has been given sufficient soft landing time to ensure the safe withdrawal of user asset coins. At that time, some people said that after the country closed the exchange, the "illegal" bitcoins would be confiscated (including similar rumors when OKEX stopped withdrawing coins before). Currency, isn't it creating social instability? So absolutely impossible.

Jiang Zhuoer: As long as you don’t use leverage and don’t toss around the band, you can buy at least dozens of times the income of the mainstream in the late stage: Leibit Mining Pool CEO Jiang Zhuoer posted on Weibo yesterday evening, saying that no matter how much the callback is, it will rise back anyway Well, why bother with the fluctuations in the middle? In the last round of bull market, BTC had 6 major corrections of 30%-40%, and in the end, the mainstream did not rise by hundreds of times one by one. For example, LTC rose from $3.8 to $370 during the nine-month post-bull phase (March to December 2017). As long as you don't use leverage and don't toss around the band, you can buy mainstream ones at least dozens of times the income in the latter stage. [2020/12/28 15:49:54]

3. The supervision of ICO coin issuers further illustrates this point. Originally, if ICO was implemented according to the law, it would be a proper crime of illegal fundraising. However, if it is implemented in this way, the ICO coin issuers must flee in all directions, and it is impossible to refund the money. , the user's investment is zero, which still creates social instability. Therefore, the final treatment measure is: as long as the ICO issuer returns the money according to the private placement price, no further investigation will be made.

Jiang Zhuoer: It is speculated that BTC will rise to $89,133 on September 8, 2021 after the halving: On April 22, LeBit Mining Pool Jiang Zhuoer published a Weibo article "Where is the halving bull market now & the bull market has peaked" According to the "Price Forecast", from the perspective of Bitcoin halving history, "lowest point→halving point→highest point" has formed an obvious cycle. And use this rule to predict the long-term trend of this halving bull market peak:

1. The time of the highest point: Time symmetry appeared in the last two rounds (the "days from the lowest price to halve" is slightly more than the "days to the highest price from halved"), and the same ratio as the "days to the lowest price from halved" in this round The highest point available is 491 days, and the specific time is September 8, 2021.

2. Highest point price: The larger the volume of investment products, the lower the volatility should be. The descending line should be a curve. For the sake of simplicity, it can be replaced by linear, so it can be obtained: Assuming that the "increasing multiple" decreases linearly, the current round of increasing multiple is 29 times, corresponding to a currency price of 89,133 US dollars; assuming that the "total market value increasing multiple" decreases linearly, then The total market capitalization of this round is *7 times, corresponding to a currency price of $120,876. [2020/4/22]

4. So do you understand? For exchanges and ICO issuers, the maintenance of stability is the overriding priority. The first thing is to ensure that participants do not lose money and do not cause social stability problems. Even if the ICO issuer may be involved in the crime of illegal fundraising, in order to maintain stability, as long as you refund the money, you will not be arrested.

Voice | Jiang Zhuoer: Biyin has used too much computing power to cut mines with BCH machine guns, and it is recommended to dig in BCH openly: Jiang Zhuoer replied to Zhu Wei, the co-founder of Biyin, on Weibo, saying: "1. Excessive computing power is mined by BCH machine gun, and it is anonymous (this is important). 2. Although we also mined, we support BCH, and we also lose money to protect BCH when something happens, but you don’t support BCH? 3. It is recommended not to be anonymous, but to dig in BCH openly." [2019/10/30]

5. Many people who participate in ICO buy coins in the secondary market, and the price is much higher. If you return money at the private placement price, you still lose money. Why does the regulation require that you return coins at the private placement price? Because the ICO coin issuer must have received the money at the private placement price (various expenses in the middle are not within the scope of regulatory considerations), and can basically be refunded at the private placement price, so this is the greatest common divisor of stability. If a higher price is required If the coin is refunded, the issuer of the ICO coin that cannot be refunded may simply run away, and the user will not be able to refund a penny, creating instability.

Voice | Jiang Zhuoer: The flood in Sichuan has little impact on global Bitcoin production: Jiang Zhuoer, the founder of LeBit Mining Pool, said that the flood in the Sichuan mine was only an independent incident, and the flood last month did not affect the Sichuan area. What is the impact of Bitcoin mining farms. There are actually very few mining machines that were flooded. Jiang Zhuoer said that heavy rainfall in summer is "common" for experienced large-scale mines and will not affect their normal operations. At present, all the operating activities of the large mines in Sichuan that he knows are normal. "If we want to talk about the impact of continuous heavy rainfall on mining activities, it may be that some small hydropower stations will be forced to shut down due to floods, which will cause some mining machines to work without power." Jiang Zhuoer said, this situation has great impact on the entire network computing The effect of force is also very small. The main impact on the global Bitcoin computing power is the decline in currency prices and the rise in computing power. [2018/7/13]

6. Therefore, the regulatory measures have been carefully considered, and the practical effect has been considered to a large extent. The two messages including 94 and 521 were released on Friday night. 94 The interview request of the exchange and the notice of the closure of the exchange were issued on the evening of September 15 (Friday):

521 is also Friday night at 10pm. Why is it Friday night? Because for the purpose of suppressing the bubble, it is best to issue a notice on Friday night. Banks basically do not work on Saturdays and Sundays, especially European and American banks are closed on weekends, and European and American bargain hunters, especially institutional investors, cannot enter the market, so Xiaohan will say "tonight (Sunday night) is the most difficult."

7. Going back to mining, there are two points that everyone agrees on against mining: one is to crack down on all kinds of capital disks in the name of mining (especially IPFS’s capital disks for grandpas and aunts), financialized cloud computing force (which may lead to [individual risk transfer to the social field]), and the second is the goal of carbon neutrality.

But the advantage of mining is that it is a physical industry, which binds a large number of physical resources, employed population, and electricity. BTC mining output is 900 BTC a day, with an annual output value of 100 billion, plus ETH, mining in China has an annual output value of at least 100 billion, and the employment of hundreds of thousands of upstream and downstream related industries. Mining is a magical industry that turns discarded water and electricity into gold and foreign exchange, and also has zero pollution and zero emissions.

At that time, it took several months for the liquidation of the exchange, not to mention the liquidation of the real industry such as mining. The loss and bankruptcy of the power station are also unstable factors.

8. To give an example: the hydropower consumption parks in many remote mountainous areas in Sichuan are local poverty alleviation projects. The parks have promoted local employment and contributed income and GDP to local power stations, power grids, and governments. The poverty alleviation is personally deployed and directed Combat missions, and a complete victory has been achieved. If the hydropower consumption park is closed and the local area returns to poverty, who will be responsible for it? In fact, this still needs to be considered from the bottom. Which choice has the least impact on social stability?

9. Furthermore, if the large mines are shut down, since mining is not illegal, the mining machines will eventually flow into the hands of more individuals, and the Bitcoin mining industry will return to the state it was in 2014~2015 ——

Small miners put a few mining machines at home to dig,

Medium miners find a warehouse to put dozens of mining machines to dig, or find a factory to put hundreds of mining machines to dig,

Big miners find a small hydropower station in a remote place where electricity cannot be sold, and put one or two thousand mining machines to mine it.

When I first entered the currency circle at the end of 2013, I bought two mining machines with graphics cards to mine at home. Why would I want to mine with two mining machines at home? Because at that time, a mining machine earned three or four thousand a month. For most families, it is a very happy thing to install two mining machines and earn a few thousand dollars more every month.

In addition, those who think that the mining opportunity will be zero and sold as waste products have no common sense of market economy. The only thing that determines the price of the mining machine is the currency price and computing power. Even if the mining machine goes to sea, as long as the family miners can still mine If you put two mining machines at home and earn thousands of yuan a month, the mining machines will not return to zero, but will have a reasonable price that matches the mining output.

10. A mining machine is a little spark. Spreading sparks all over the fields, allowing hundreds of thousands or even millions of families to join the mining army, is it good or bad for financial stability? Mining is the best advertisement for Bitcoin. Many people who don’t believe in Bitcoin will participate in mining, believe in Bitcoin, and further expand the crowd of speculators?

11. Of course, some people will say that the supervision directly declares that Bitcoin mining is illegal, and even holding Bitcoin is illegal. But in fact, it is unlikely that the supervision will do so. When the country vigorously promotes the blockchain, and the European and American bitcoin exchanges Coinbase are listed in compliance, it is reasonable to say that speculating in coins may lead to financial risks, but it is illegal to hold bitcoin across the board. Not likely.


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