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What does it mean that the cost of holding positions has risen rapidly after 519?



Madman writes every analysis article with a responsible, focused, and sincere attitude, with distinctive features, no artificiality, and no exaggeration!

The information and data in this content-zce come from publicly available information, and strive to be accurate and reliable, but we do not make any guarantees for the accuracy and completeness of the information. This content-zce does not constitute investment advice, and investment based on it is at your own risk.

Madman Says

The annual Bitcoin Pizza Festival is here again. Newcomers may not know its origin. The background of the story is very simple. In May 2010, a programmer spent 10,000 Bitcoins (currently worth 2.6 billion yuan) ) Waited for 4 days after posting on the forum to exchange two pizzas, so Bitcoin has its value. Pizza to celebrate, which is also the origin of the name flatbread. So this weekend, pizza shops around the world are the busiest. I would like to take this festival and wish Bitcoin a better and better future.

The madman wants to talk about the logic of the Bitcoin bull market. Since 312 last year, Bitcoin has risen from 3,800 to 65,000, an increase of 17 times. There has not been a decent wash in the middle, which means that almost all investors are profit-making. Among them, the holding cost of institutions is mostly in the range of 20,000 to 30,000 US dollars, which is higher than most retail investors. This round of slump-like washing, on the surface, cleared a large number of leveraged long positions, but actually liquidated those profit-making positions that have been holding Bitcoin since the bottom. After the change of hands, the cost of holding positions of a large number of investors increased rapidly. , This increase in holding costs has become a new accumulation of Bitcoin's rise. The rapid surge of profit-making orders means that there will be fewer and fewer bitcoins that can be used as a smashing supply later. The cost of new investors is above 30,000. They will not consider selling if they do not rise above 50,000. Needless to say, the chips for locking positions will continue to demand far more than the supply. Driven by this logic, Bitcoin will restart its upward trend after releasing the panic. But the premise is that the background of inflation cannot be changed, which is a necessary condition for Bitcoin to continue its bull market.

Sudoswap imitation disk Sudorare is suspected to have Rug Pull, and the deployer has profited about 519 ETH: According to news on August 23, Sudoswap imitation disk Sudorare is suspected to have Rug Pull, and the Looks, WETH and XMON tokens in the contract address were transferred to the address 0xbb42 at the beginning , and then sold as ETH on Uniswap, with a total profit of about 519.5 ETH (about 800,000 US dollars). Sudorare's website and Twitter account are now inaccessible. ‎According to Twitter user analysis, the initial deployment funds came from South Korean exchange Kraken. [2022/8/23 12:42:49]

The Federal Reserve will release a report on the legal digital currency of the U.S. dollar in the summer, and believes that cryptocurrencies and stablecoins will bring risks to the financial system. The call for regulation is getting louder and louder. The chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission expressed his hope to see more regulation on cryptocurrency exchanges, which will give more help to retail investors after regulation. At the same time, the U.S. Department of the Treasury requires crypto investors to report crypto assets and transfers exceeding $10,000. This series of actions made the encryption market panic again overnight, and the wind of supervision is ready to emerge.

The ENS domain name 600519.eth was sold at a price of 9.8ETH: Jinse Finance News, OpenSea data shows that the ENS domain name 600519.eth was sold at a price of 9.8ETH. It is reported that the stock code of Kweichow Moutai is (600519). According to previous reports, the Ethereum domain name service ENS tweeted that the number of ENS new domain name registrations in April was close to 163,000, a monthly record high. [2022/5/3 2:46:17]

The Fed's Kaplan said that inflation will rise in 2021 and hopes to discuss tapering bond purchases as soon as possible. According to the current progress of the Federal Reserve, there is a high probability that the shrinking of the balance sheet will happen in 2022, so this year's big easing environment remains unchanged.

In China, China Securities Journal and CCTV once again reminded the risks of virtual currency, be alert to the false prosperity of the virtual currency market, abandon fluke psychology, and maintain the safety of your own property. The madman feels that this kind of risk warning is extremely necessary. The volatility of this market is definitely not something that amateur investors can bear. While gaining huge profits, they must learn how to allocate assets, reduce their greed, and let more money lie in capital-guaranteed financial management. In the bank, use small positions to obtain high-risk and high-yield assets.

CrypToadz #1519 sold for about $1.5 million: On October 7th, CrypToadz #1519 sold for 420WETH (about $1.5 million). In the last 30 days, the sales of CrypToadz NFT works were about 114 million US dollars, ranking fourth. [2021/10/7 20:10:42]

The founder of Carlyle Investment Group said that it has invested in cryptocurrencies. The company's asset management scale exceeds one trillion yuan, and another large asset management company has come to participate in value investment.

California community bank Suncres plans to provide bitcoin services to customers, while Futu Holdings also intends to launch cryptocurrency trading services for users in the United States, Singapore, and Hong Kong, China. The continuous improvement of these supporting facilities paved the way for more investors to enter the market.

The CEO of Goldman Sachs predicts that the market value of cryptocurrencies will inevitably be equal to, and eventually higher than, gold. The CEO of Tianqiao Capital believes that the Bitcoin bull market is not over, and in the long run, it will rebound. Combined with the actual actions of Musk, Sister Mumu and Justin Sun yesterday, the big guys are still buying and optimistic about Bitcoin, and it is only a matter of time before it rises.

BTC breaks through the $51,900 mark with an intraday increase of 1.66%: data from Huobi Global shows that BTC has risen in the short term, breaking through the $51,900 mark, and is now at $51,906.21, with an intraday increase of 1.66%. The market fluctuates greatly, so please do a good job in risk control. [2021/3/9 18:26:56]

Teucrium Trading submitted a bitcoin futures ETF application to the US SEC. The biggest thing left to watch this year is when the SEC will approve the bitcoin ETF, which will be related to at least 10-20% volatility of bitcoin.

Bitcoin has been declared "dead" 414 times, and most of them appeared around the time of the 2018 crash. What doesn't kill him will eventually make him stronger. The trend is irreversible, and we can only choose to embrace it.

The panic and greed index is 19, which is still extremely panic and belongs to the area where opportunities outweigh risks.

The number of lightning network nodes has reached 15,195: According to Jinse Finance, according to data, the number of nodes supporting the network has reached 15,195 at present, an increase of 2.81% compared to the data 30 days ago; the number of channels is 36,021, compared with 30 According to the data a few days ago, it rose by 1.1% month-on-month; the carrying capacity of the Lightning Network is currently 1063.12 BTC, which is about 24.2322 million US dollars. [2020/12/21 16:01:07]

Grayscale’s GBTC discount is -10.6%, and ETHE’s premium is 3.16%. The secondary market funds in the US stock market have picked up, which is a good thing.

At night, 10,000 bitcoins were transferred to the bitfinex exchange. This panic has not yet ended, so the second dip in the bitcoin market may start at any time.

The Ethereum Foundation transferred 35,000 Ethereum to the Kraken exchange on May 17, with a balance of 394,000. The last time the address sold coins was the high point of the bull market in 2017, and 70,000 were cashed out. This will dampen investors' determination to hold ETH and affect the exchange rate of Ethereum to Bitcoin later.

Market Analysis


312, 519, the stampede plunge caused by the two leveraged liquidation, has the same purpose, their plunge logic is basically the same, so it is worth learning from, 312 rebounded from 3800 to 5600, the rebound rate was 47%, 519 from 29000 It rebounded to 42400, and the rebound rate was also 47%. Judging from the comparative rebound rate, the short-term rebound may be over, and it will continue to oscillate in this box in the future, and then complete the second bottoming and start a new rise. The madman put 312 The 4h map and the 519 4h map are shown for comparison:



Therefore, the bottom-buying interval for the second dip will probably be between 32,000-35,000. Don't panic when the time comes, and pick up the car bravely. In the short term, this position is oscillating repeatedly, and there is always a period of silence after the madness


The linkage fluctuates, and the trend is not as good as that of the big pie, waiting for the second Tan's opportunity to get on the bus.


In the first two days, the bottom-hunting funds were very fierce, and it is recommended to hold positions to increase.


There is a lot of callbacks today, but no bulls are seen entering the market, and the overall linkage is the main one.


There were bottom-hunting funds two days ago, so take it.


Relatively strong today, is expected to continue to rebound.


The chance is not big, the linkage is the main one.


Enter the oversold area and wait for a rebound.


The shape is not bad, but the high level fluctuates.


A sharp rebound, 340 is a pressure level, and it is difficult to rush through it once.


There is a lot of lock-up at the top, and 100 is a strong pressure level. In the short term, it will rebound.


Musk continued to milk, but there was a lot of scolding on Twitter, his influence was fading day by day, and it was difficult to rescue a large number of Dogecoin holdings, and the rebound was still mainly lightening up, with a pressure of 0.5.


After going through 519, it is still in the shock box, and the funds are very resistant. The market outlook is expected to lead Dex to take the lead in rebounding.


The shape is not bad, mainly holding.

At this position in the market, the high level of 42,400 is not easy to surpass in the short term. Once it rushes up, the next pressure level is 45,000. Empty future.


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