Large institutions accurately foresee the ETH callback, and retail investors become the winners of BTC's sharp drop

Original title-zce "Large Institutions Accurately Forecast ETH's Pullback and Retail Investors Turned into BTC's Plunge "Winner" | CFTC COT Cryptocurrency Positions Weekly Report" Author: 7 On May 15, CFTC released the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (May 5 -May 11th), the price performance of BTC in the latest statistical period was very subtle, and there was no particularly obvious fluctuation in the market throughout the week, but on the first trading day after the statistical period ended, BTC fell below the integer mark of 50,000 USD Therefore, this weekly report presents the "preparation" of various accounts before this round of rapid correction. Which types of accounts accurately "predicted" this wave of correction is the key to this weekly report. The number of total open positions (total open positions) rebounded from 8306 to 8469 in the latest data. , In the latest statistical cycle, the overall market position has recovered all the declines in the previous statistical cycle, but the specific details of the increase in positions still need to look at the actual adjustment of various accounts. In terms of sub-item data, the long position of the largest dealer has further increased from 500 to 516, the short position has simultaneously increased from 93 to 113, and the long-short two-way (hedged) position has further fallen from 151 to 131. , For the second consecutive week, large institutions have carried out two-way synchronous position increase of long and short positions. Considering that the market has limited fluctuations in the latest statistical cycle, it is not surprising that dealer accounts have continued the operating ideas of the previous statistical cycle. However, as mentioned at the beginning of the article, since the market experienced a round of rapid decline immediately after the end of the statistical period, the increase in the position of the dealer's account can be said to be another "wrong" judgment. In the past month or so, the largest institutions of this type have not been optimistic enough to control the market rhythm. Analysis: Large institutional holders and a large number of whale addresses have sold Bitcoin for a consecutive year: Golden Finance reported that according to Santiment's analysis article, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by 58% this year alone, and large institutional holders and a large number of whale addresses Bitcoin has been sold off for a year in a row. Additionally, the major Ethereum whale addresses are not holding their supply in large quantities on exchanges, nor have they shown signs of much accumulation since the merger. It has been observed that the market capitalization of large stablecoins has been growing in May of this year, but when Fed rate hikes and recession fears start to really affect investor decision-making, it will be more difficult for large institutional holders to justify holding A large number of cryptocurrencies, which may allow large institutions and "whales" to invest funds in the national debt of the United States and countries around the world. [2022/10/28 11:52:06] The long positions held by asset management institutions rose from 370 to 383, and the short positions fell from 994 to 910. This value fell from the historical high and ended the previous four weeks Continuously rising, two-way positions rose from 20 to 112. In the latest statistical cycle, asset management institutions have carried out a clear net long position adjustment, and have given up the continuous increase in short positions in the case of increasing long positions. As the most staunch "short sellers" in the past few statistical cycles, this type of account has changed its thinking on position adjustment before the market experienced a wave of rapid correction. Misjudgment, research institutions: Since May, large institutions have dumped about $5.5 billion in Bitcoin: Golden Financial News, Vetle Lunde, an analyst at digital asset research institution Arcane Research, tweeted that since May 10, large Institutions (Terra Foundation, miners, Tesla, etc.) have sold as many as 236,237 BTC (valued at $5.452 billion), mainly due to forced sales, and the main cause was the collapse of Terra's ecology. Vetle Lunde said that the current bias is to support forced selling and uncertainty related to contagion. Over the next period, we may experience crashes, pumps and crashes in choppy conditions. [2022/7/22 2:30:46] In the latest statistical period, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts dropped from 2,544 to 2,319. It further rose from 328 to 502. The synchronous increase in long and short positions carried out by leveraged funds last week failed to continue, and at the same time, the proportion of long and single positions has returned to below 30%. Compared with the rebalancing of the two types of large institutions, leveraged funds are relatively accurate in judging this wave of callbacks after the end of the latest statistical cycle. News | "5 large institutions announced to withdraw from Libra currency" was on Weibo's hot search-zce list: "5 large institutions announced to withdraw from Libra currency" was on Weibo's hot search-zce list, and now ranks 48th with 109,734 searches. Previously, after PayPal, Mastercard, Visa, eBay, Stripe and Mercado Pago announced their withdrawal from the Libra Association. [2019/10/12] In terms of positions held by large investors, the long position rose from 2020 to 2154 contracts, which rebounded from the low point of nearly 13 weeks, the short position rose from 258 to 292 contracts, and the two-way position rose from 87 to 114 contracts . In the latest statistical period, the large account did not carry out a clear unilateral adjustment of positions, but carried out a simultaneous increase in various positions. Considering that the large account held a net air-conditioning position in the last statistical period, the synchronous adjustment of positions that had a limited impact on the long-short position ratio in the latest statistical period can also be understood as a "refill" for the bearish thinking. The rhythm control is still quite accurate. Voice | Morgan Creek founder: Chief information officers of several large institutions have begun to invest in Bitcoin: Morgan Creek founder Anthony Pompliano tweeted that he recently met with several chief information officers in multi-billion dollar institutions. While these companies are not yet investing in Bitcoin, these CIOs are already. [2019/7/25] In terms of retail positions, the long position dropped from 2286 to 2237, and the short position rose slightly from 868 to 876. Retail investors unexpectedly made a clear net air-conditioning position in the case of limited market price fluctuations, and made a fairly correct judgment when large institutions failed to accurately predict a round of correction after the end of the latest statistical cycle. It can be considered the biggest surprise in the latest weekly report. Voice | Chairman of Abu Dhabi Global Financial Center: In the field of blockchain, it is to seek cooperation with digital teams of traditional large institutions: Ahmed Sayeh, chairman of Abu Dhabi Global Financial Center, recently accepted an interview with "China Finance" magazine Said: "The application of blockchain core technology at the regulatory level is very important. ADGM's experience in this field is to seek cooperation with the digital teams of traditional large institutions. We use blockchain/distributed ledger technology ( DLT), launched an electronic version of the e-KYC (“know your customer”) utility. This shared utility helps financial institutions comply with regulatory requirements, reduce costs, increase efficiency, and improve customer experience.” [2018/8/ 3] Although ETH also experienced a sharp correction on the first trading day after the end of the latest statistical period, the market performance of ETH during this statistical period was significantly better than that of BTC, and the price hit a record high during this period. It can be said that before a round of rapid correction after the end of the latest statistical period, the market performance of ETH is more "confusing". Whether there are certain types of accounts that have predicted the potential correction in the strong market performance is part of ETH. the key to. The number of total positions (total open positions) dropped from 2,416 to 2,157 in the latest data. Has already smelled the breath of risk in advance, not blindly optimistic. From the perspective of sub-item data, the long position of the largest dealer has remained unchanged at 0 contracts, the short position has risen from 0 to 42 contracts, and the long-short two-way (hedged) position has remained unchanged at 0 contracts. The dealer’s account increased the short position against the trend when the price hit a record high, accurately foreseeing the callback market after the end of the statistical cycle, and is more accurate in judging ETH than BTC. The long positions held by asset management institutions dropped from 66 to 0, the short positions rose from 0 to 70, and the two-way positions rose from 0 to 10. In the latest statistical cycle, asset management institutions have carried out more clear net air-conditioning positions, and both types of large institutional accounts have shown a rather "calm" attitude in the hot market. In the latest statistical cycle of leveraged fund accounts, the long position rebounded from 950 to 1023, the short position rose simultaneously from 1858 to 2089, and the two-way position rose from 74 to 106. In the latest statistical cycle, leveraged funds have changed their thinking of substantially reducing their positions in the previous statistical cycle, and carried out a concentrated increase in their positions. Although the status of net short positions has not changed, the proportion of long-short positions has increased after the adjustment of positions in the latest statistical cycle. It can be considered that such accounts are still "affected" by price increases, and there is no risk of a potential correction Prepare too much. In terms of large positions, long positions rose from 311 to 405, short positions fell from 69 to 44, and two-way positions rose slightly from 18 to 19. In the latest statistical period, the large accounts once again carried out a clear net long position adjustment. This type of account has maintained a firm idea of chasing more during the rapid rise of ETH prices, which also means that after the end of the latest statistical period, this round Large investors will inevitably suffer more losses during the rapid correction. In terms of retail positions, the long position rose from 997 to 1180, a record high, and the short position rose from 397 to 463 simultaneously, a record high. Retail investors have increased their positions significantly during the latest statistical cycle, which means that the rapid rise in ETH prices has attracted a large number of retail funds to enter the market, and this is also a manifestation of retail investors' emotional.

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