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The "mining circle" is ebbing, are consumers getting closer to "graphics card freedom"?



On May 12, Musk, a classmate who "brings goods" in the currency circle from time to time, said on Twitter that out of concerns about "the rapid increase in the use of fossil fuels to mine Bitcoin", Tesla has temporarily suspended Bitcoin. currency transactions.

This sudden "anti-water" remark caused the price of Bitcoin to drop.

A week later, a number of industry associations in China jointly issued an announcement requiring member institutions not to carry out virtual currency trading and other related financial services; Internet platform companies are not allowed to provide online business premises, commercial displays, marketing publicity, etc. for virtual currency-related businesses. Services such as paid diversion.

On May 19, the price of Bitcoin plummeted all the way, plummeting 30% in the intraday, reaching a minimum of $30,500 per coin, a drop of more than 50% from the high of $64,838 on April 14. Ethereum also fell more than 40% intraday. On May 20, Bitcoin barely returned to a price of $40,000.

However, as the relevant ministries and commissions issued a document on the 21st, requiring strengthening the supervision of financial activities of platform companies and cracking down on bitcoin mining and trading, the virtual currency market price "flash crashed" again, and bitcoin fell by $3,000 in the short term.

On May 25, Musk, who was once again a "demon", called for the use of clean energy for mining, and the price of Bitcoin rebounded by nearly $3,000. In just two weeks, various virtual currencies represented by Bitcoin have experienced several rounds of "roller coaster"-style ups and downs. Seeing such a "turbulent" "situation" in the currency circle also made miners and mining machine merchants start to panic.

A court in Jiangsu ruled that the Bitcoin "mining machine" lease contract is invalid: According to news on June 1, recently, the People's Court of Lianyungang Economic and Technological Development Zone, Jiangsu Province heard a dispute over a Bitcoin "mining machine" lease contract. The court ruled that the relevant contract was invalid, and rejected the plaintiff's claim for the return of rent and bitcoin proceeds.

The court held that illegal debts are not protected by law. The transaction involved in this case is actually a "mining" activity that calculates and produces virtual currency through special "mining machines". Such "mining" activities cause a great waste of power resources, do not meet the requirements of my country's "double carbon" goals, and are detrimental to social and public interests. Moreover, virtual currencies such as bitcoin are not legal tender and have no actual value support, and their production and trading links generate many risks.

According to previous news in March, the Beijing Chaoyang Court held a public hearing and pronounced a judgment on a service contract dispute caused by the delay in seeing the benefits of Bitcoin “mining”. litigation claims. (Modern Express) [2022/6/1 3:55:24]

On May 25, when Dingunder Notes came to Huaqiang Plaza in Huaqiang North, Shenzhen again, it was found that the stalls operating mining machines on the second and fourth floors were no longer as noisy as they were a few months ago. During most of the day, only one or two stalls had sporadic customer inquiries.

"Bitcoin prices have fluctuated this year, but people are still asking about mining machines. The number of people who asked about mining machines began to decrease until ten days ago." One of the mining machine merchants, Xiao Xu, told Understanding Notes that Bitcoin price fluctuations in the past two weeks are rare in history. For the majority of miners, it can be called a "mining disaster".

Xinhua News Agency: High energy-consuming "mines" should not be allowed to divert precious resources: Xinhua News Agency issued an article stating that "air coins" are like air, invisible, intangible, without physical support, and have no application value. Once the price of such speculative hype targets collapses and the tide recedes, only huge losses and regrets will be brought to investors. Virtual currency mining requires the help of computer calculations, and the "mining machine" used for mining must have extremely strong data processing capabilities, and generally have relatively high power. In order to exchange money for virtual currency earlier, "mine owners" gather many "mining machines" to form "mine farms", and excavate day and night, so the power consumption is huge. To crack down on virtual currency mining, not only does the local government need to take the initiative to issue a document to stop mining and cut off the increase; it also needs to introduce comprehensive measures including electricity prices, land, taxation, environmental protection, etc., to promote the orderly exit of existing enterprises. (Xinhua News Agency) [2021/6/2 23:04:15]

Xiao Xu said that in the past two weeks, no bitcoin mining machine has been sold at the stall, and the situation at other mining machine stalls in the square is not much better. Like other merchants, whenever he sees a passer-by pass by his stall, he will stand up and ask: "Do you want to see the mining machine? There are all kinds of mining machines."

What is puzzling is that Xiao Xu, a businessman who talked about the Bitcoin "mining disaster", can still talk and laugh freely. Could it be that the "mining disaster" has led to a sharp drop in the sales of mining machines and the number of consultations, and the merchants at the one-meter counter are not anxious?

Yang Haipo: "Miner voting" in the blockchain world is a complete utopia: On the morning of August 5, ViaBTC mining pool CEO Yang Haipo posted on Weibo that in the blockchain world, "miner voting" is a complete utopia. utopia. In fact, miners are the least important group, and developers are the leaders who decide the direction of a project. [2020/8/5]

After hearing this, Xiao Xu waved his hands and said, "We haven't seen such a big storm. Didn't the price of Bitcoin drop three years ago, which caused (merchant) mining machines to be unsalable?"

Talking about the 2018 Bitcoin price "cut in half" and the unsalable situation of mining machines, Xiao Xu still seems to have a fresh memory. At that time, a large number of mining machines were sold at a discount of only 10% or 20% off. Hundreds of mining machine stalls and shops in Huaqiangbei were closed one after another. Almost all the lucky "surviving" stalls switched to selling other digital products.

"Today's (mining machine) merchants basically don't pile up inventory. Only when customers make an order, they will pick up the goods, and no one will press the goods." Because of this, Xiao Xu believes that the price of Bitcoin is turbulent this time , The demand for mining machines has dropped sharply, and the impact on mining machine merchants is at best a reduction in operating income, and it will not cause unsalable products in stock and lead to bankruptcy.

The price of Bitcoin has fluctuated greatly, and the impact on the operation of mining machine merchants does not seem to be as great as it was three years ago. At the same time, in order to cope with the impact of price fluctuations of mainstream virtual currencies represented by Bitcoin on the demand for mining machines, in the past two weeks, many mining machine stalls, including Xiaoxu, have been selling very popular one after another. hard disk mining machine.

Currency prices fall, "mining disaster" is coming, Huaqiangbei mining machine sellers cut their flesh in tears: First Financial News, industry insiders said that selling mining machines is not making money, but losing money. The most expensive Bitcoin mining machine S9 was around 34,000 at the end of November and early December 2017, and it is now around 20,000 yuan. The Dash Antminer D3 once rose all the way to more than 30,000 yuan. It began to drop in price at the end of September and early October 2017. At the lowest point, it once fell to several thousand yuan. The current market price is about 10,000 yuan. [2018/2/6]

"Hard disk mining machines are mainly for Chia currency, which became popular in April. The current currency price is high and the computing power requirement is low." He told Understanding Notes that compared with mainstream virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, Chia currency is relatively small. The number of miners engaged in mining is not too large.

In Huaqiang Plaza, I understand Notes also saw a large number of stalls hanging up the billboards of "Kia Hard Disk Mining Machine". However, when asked whether the demand and sales of mining machines will continue to increase if the price of Bitcoin rises again in the future (with the emergence of new digital coins), Xiao Xu shook his head: It will be difficult, and this business is at an end.

After experiencing a sharp drop in the price of Bitcoin three years ago, the mining machine market that was still able to "make a comeback" is now only "the end of the road"?

In Huaqiang Square, I understand Notes and saw that some mining machine stalls have quietly removed the prototypes for display, and re-displayed the hard disk, memory, chassis and other accessories for building the machine. There are only a few signboards marked with "XX Mining Industry", which shows that there were mining machines for sale at the stalls.

Ba Shusong, professor of finance at Peking University HSBC Business School: Bitcoin "mine disaster" will make people lose confidence in the blockchain: Ba Shusong, professor of finance at Peking University HSBC Business School, said: "Bitcoin is the foundation of blockchain technology It means that if there is a "mining disaster" more terrible than the plunge, investors will lose confidence in blockchain technology, which will seriously affect investors' valuation of technology stocks. Panic selling will inevitably occur, and there may be a bubble similar to the technology stocks in 2000 A ruptured crisis." "However, its degree of damage and ability to spread are far less than the subprime mortgage crisis, so the Bitcoin crisis cannot be compared with the 2008 financial crisis." [2017/12/27]

"The signboard (marked with the word mining) should also be removed on weekends. It is not very meaningful to be a hard disk mining machine now." A Qiang, a merchant, told understand notes that the price of virtual currency fluctuates. For the "currency circle" and "mining circle" "The impact is only temporary.

As the price gradually stabilizes, the demand for mining and mining machines will gradually pick up, and merchants should "make a comeback".

However, this time the State Council Financial Committee announced a severe crackdown on mining activities, which undoubtedly gave the "mining circle" a complete "death sentence". Even if the emerging virtual currency is sought after by some miners and investors, and the price situation is improving, the process of virtual currency output also comes from the behavior of "mining", which inevitably has risks.

"Isn't a hard disk mining machine a mining machine? As long as it is a mining machine, it will be taken away by the relevant regulatory authorities sooner or later." In Aqiang's eyes, because of the "turbulence" in the price of mainstream virtual currencies such as Bitcoin, they are sold in groups. The sub-hard disk mining machine is undoubtedly an act of deception.

Although under the effect of short-term demand, merchants can make a small profit by selling hard disk mining machines, but it is destined to be difficult for a long time. A Qiang speculates that the mining machine merchants in Huaqiangbei will be the first to be "smashed" by the relevant departments when they crack down on mining. They started from the north."

These points of view are the fundamental reasons why most Huaqiangbei mining machine merchants, including Aqiang, are eager to remove the big signboard of the stall recently and "demineralize".

Even if someone solicits mining machine business, the merchants basically rely on their mouths. As for how long it can last, Ah Qiang thinks that it is half a year at most, and three or four months at least.

At the same time, as the prices of Bitcoin and other mainstream virtual currencies fluctuated, the enthusiasm for mining in the industry declined, and a large number of miners in mines changed hands and sold second-hand mining machines. However, unlike when Bitcoin fell sharply three years ago, merchants in Huaqiangbei are generally cautious about recycling mining machines.

Aqiang said frankly that even if it is only one-fifth of the price of a new mining machine, he is currently afraid to recycle it, so as to avoid the backlog of a large number of second-hand mining machines in his hands due to the decline in domestic demand for mining machines. In the face of this round of Bitcoin "mining disasters", no merchant is sure that they can sell second-hand mining machines at a low price.

"The mines will all move to Southeast Asia, and the miners who mine coins in China will not dare to take risks and continue mining." Another mining machine merchant, Jiezi, told understand notes that due to the high cost of mining, the domestic two Three years ago, many miners began to move their mines to Southeast Asia and other places. Now with the regulatory turmoil, it is believed that a large number of mines will move to overseas regions.

If mining machine merchants want to solve the "dead end" ending, they can only go to sea with the miners to operate the mining machine business, but the business risks faced by the merchants also increase accordingly. With the implementation of supervision, the stalls operating mining machines may disappear in Huaqiangbei again, and it will be difficult to make a comeback.

Huaqiangbei mining machine merchants are not the only ones who are "shivering" due to the volatile prices of mainstream virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and the crackdown on mining activities by relevant ministries and commissions.

Recently, news spread on the Internet that due to the continued weakening of demand for mining and mining machines, the price of RTX3060 graphics cards has been reduced by 1,500 yuan. Some channel dealers sold 30 RTX3070 graphics cards wholesale to retailers at a price of 240,000 yuan, equivalent to 8,000 yuan each, in order to sell them as soon as possible.

As soon as the rumors came out, a large number of consumers applauded and praised, and some users who just needed it said that the empty graphics card slot of the new computer at home could be saved.

Indeed, since the beginning of this year, due to the sharp rise in the price of Bitcoin, the mining sentiment in the market has risen, resulting in a sharp increase in the price of graphics cards, and even the phenomenon that one card is hard to find.

According to some media reports, in the first four months of this year, the price of Nvidia's new 30 series graphics card has risen by more than 10,000 yuan, more than double the price increase, and it is often out of stock. In desperation, users who just need it can only buy the previous generation of graphics cards, which has caused the price of the previous generation of products that have been on the market for several years to follow suit, and there is also a shortage of goods.

Nowadays, with the implementation of industry regulatory boots, users who just need it are looking forward to the channel "profiteers" who are afraid that a large amount of inventory will be rotten in their hands to cut prices and sell the new generation of graphics cards, so as to achieve the goal of "graphics card freedom".

So, will the graphics card in the hands of channel dealers appear on the market soon?

"Probably not. After the stalls and retailers get the graphics card at a low price through the wholesale channel, they should cover it for a while." As a bystander, Huaqiangbei "backpacker" Xiao Liu has clearly understood the business model of the stalls. It is well understood. He told Understanding Notes that at present, although the channel dealers are afraid that the graphics card will be dropped in their hands, they will release a batch of inventory at a low price, but they will basically let the stalls go wholesale.

Before that, a large number of miners sold second-hand graphics cards disassembled from mining machines, which also flowed into the hands of some stalls. As long as accessory retailers and stalls do not release graphics cards for the time being, the phenomenon of hard-to-find cards may continue for a long time. As for stall merchants, they create the illusion of a "graphics card shortage" in order to give priority to selling and clearing the inventory of second-hand graphics cards. .

"Mining cards cannot be used, which has become the consensus of many machine enthusiasts. But new cards are out of stock, and second-hand cards must be used." Xiao Liu said that because the new generation of graphics cards has been out of stock for nearly half a year, some people can't bear it. Users who just need to buy second-hand graphics cards instead, which naturally include some new or refurbished second-hand mining cards removed from the mining machine.

As long as a large number of second-hand mining cards and refurbished graphics cards have not been cleared, retailers will naturally not easily release new graphics cards. Even at the moment, users who just need it can buy what is called a new generation of performance graphics cards at a relatively reasonable price, and it is difficult to guarantee that they will not get refurbished products.

On the e-commerce platform, I understand Notes that at present, in the official flagship stores of most brands, some models of 30-series graphics cards are still out of stock. As for unofficial digital accessories stores, although the price of the new generation of performance graphics cards has been slightly lowered, it may be difficult for consumers who just need to know whether the products are "new".

The only thing that is certain is that due to the insufficient supply of graphics card production capacity, it will take a long time for users to return to the original market price of graphics cards and realize the real "freedom of graphics cards". Users who plan to "pick up leaks" under "mine accidents" should be extremely cautious and keep their eyes open.


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