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Chia, which has soared more than 200 times, is it still a good time to get on the car and mine?



Chia, known as "Green Bitcoin", has been aware of the high energy consumption of Bitcoin since August 2017, so its mining method has changed from graphics card mining to hard disk mining, avoiding the high degree of centralization of Bitcoin mining And the disadvantages of high energy consumption, the definition of "green bitcoin" is also highly consistent with the current national policy of "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality". At 2 a.m. on May 4, 2021, Chia was released and launched on the world-renowned trading platform OKEx and several second-tier trading platforms. It was reported that the lowest price of XCH was 495 USDT, and the highest price was 2500 USDT, which skyrocketed by 500% overnight. As of May 7, 2021, the price of XCH is stable at around 600USDT. It is not difficult to speculate that the reason for the price curve to go up and down after listing on the exchange is that the early miners' selling pressure paid off. So is Chia, which is growing so fast with such a momentum, worthy of miners participating in mining? Is now still a good time to get in the car? The editor conducted a wave of analysis on this project, hoping to help friends who want to invest in mining. 1. Chia white paper analysis 1. Basic content-zce of Chia Chia is a brand new public chain that can delay and revoke transferred digital assets. This function can be derived from many applications. Chia's goal is to become the first publicly tradeable "ETF-like" encrypted asset that is used by sovereign states, financial institutions, and corporations in day-to-day commerce. It is reported that the main network of the Chia project was just launched on March 19, 2021, with a total issuance of 42 million pieces, and an annual output of 3.3 million pieces in the first three years. Currently, only about 400,000 XCHs have been mined. In addition, Chia does not have private placement, and currently only obtains it through mining channels, but the team has a pre-mining mechanism. At present, the popularity of Chia is soaring, and the miners in the first mining stage have a lot of income. Axie Infinity's data that soared to $40.5 million on July 29th is due to third-party data platform double counting: On July 31st, Axie Infinity tweeted that the data that its revenue soared to $40.5 million on July 29th was third-party data The platform double counted, and the actual revenue was about 12.7 million US dollars. The current data has been corrected, and Axie Infinity is investigating the reason for the double counting of the data. [2021/7/31 1:26:13] 2. Chialisp underlying language analysis Chia technology innovatively invented a new programming language - Chialisp. According to the official description, Chialisp is an intelligent transaction programming language launched by Chia, which is powerful, easy to audit, safe and reliable. Currently available reference smart transactions are: Atomic Swap, Authorized Payee, Recoverable Wallet, Multisig Wallet, and Interest Rate Limit Wallet. The most important feature and biggest advantage of Chialisp is that it not only retains the UTXO model, but also adds the functions of the Ethereum Solidity model, which makes it more powerful. The first class of objects in Chialisp are assets, and transactions become ephemeral adjustments that destroy some objects and create others. In Bitcoin, transactions are the first type of objects, and Token (UTXO) is represented as a transaction ID and output number. The transactions in Chialisp happen at the same time. Chialisp programming greatly simplifies the format of Token (UTXO), including only the main input, puzzle hash and quantity; the mainnet upgrade is imminent. Cardano (ADA) has skyrocketed, surpassing XRP and Polkadot Ranked fourth in market value: On February 7, the price of Cardano (ADA) skyrocketed. According to CoinMarketcap data at the time of writing, it had reached $0.674288, a 24-hour increase of 25.28%, and its market value soared to $20,948,886,932, surpassing XRP and Polkadot It ranks fourth in the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. This Thursday (February 4th), Input Output Hong Kong, the development team responsible for building the Cardano blockchain solution, announced that the Cardano testnet Mary has successfully undergone a hard fork, and has applied the Goguen native token upgrade, and the testnet has officially entered In the multi-asset era, it will be upgraded on the main network at the end of this month. Afterwards, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson said that Cardano is superior to its biggest competitor, Ethereum 2.0, in all aspects. From the perspective of engineering and research, Ethereum’s expansion method is relatively risky, which is why Ethereum 2.0 is difficult to launch. s reason. [2021/2/7 19:09:49] At the same time, Chialisp is a Turing-complete language. Because the execution is short, it will be much simpler than the Solidity model of Ethereum. Chialisp language has the necessary primitives for calculating Token ID, and Token can declare its own ID, so it supports explicit self-reference, which can effectively avoid the use of self-generated program Quine. Bixin Dialogue with Super Jun: The skyrocketing of DeFi comes from the friction between various financial needs: On September 7, in the DeFi live broadcast in the Bixin live broadcast room, Super Jun said: "The skyrocketing of DeFi comes from the friction of various financial needs. One of the typical examples is the friction between lending and borrowing, such as miners buying mining machines, borrowing money to buy coins, etc. Since Compound issued tokens, there is a token economy, so everyone can use DeFi Valuation of various projects, from faith-driven to business-driven. The iconic development of DeFi is not necessarily Compound, I think it is YFI, the model of governance and distribution inspires all new projects and tells them how to maintain for a long time Go on. And the DeFi market has stirred up the precipitation funds of the previous centralized exchanges, which is the source of the money in the DeFi market." [2020/9/8] 3. Bitcoin and Chia's token economic model analysis of the total amount of Bitcoin 21 million pieces, mining rewards are halved every four years. Chia's incentive mechanism directly refers to the reward mechanism of Bitcoin, so the total amount of farming rewards given by XCH is also 21 million, and the farming rewards are halved every four years. However, the total amount of Chia issued is 42 million XCH, because when the main network was launched, Chia set up 21 million XCH for pre-mining. Data source: Chia business white paper analysis: Theta suffered a 50% correction after the skyrocketing, or related to the soaring social media mention rate: Theta Network sparked heat after announcing that Google Cloud will be its node operator and cloud provider. As speculation mounts around the Theta 2.0 mainnet launch, recent news has helped push its price even higher. Since the beginning of the month, Theta has surged 390%. But the high level of "FOMO" among market participants has sparked a 50% correction over the past two days. Data from Santiment showed that a sharp increase in the number of social media discussions led to the severe pullback. This rise has pushed Theta Network to second place on Santiment's "Emerging Trends" indicator, which is usually seen as a negative sign. According to Dino Ibisbegovic, head of content-zce and SEO at Santiment, a spike in social media mentions of cryptocurrencies is usually followed by a sharp drop in price. (CryptoBBriefing) [2020/5/29] 4. Chia pre-excavation analysis The 21 million XCH excavated by Chia pre-excavation are used as strategic reserves. The strategic reserve will not be used for sale and issuance. The company intends to use the strategic reserve for but not limited to the following purposes: (1) Lend Chia to the government, financial institutions, market makers and enterprises for their Chia-related Projects, such as asset issuance, payment of international invoices, and provision of liquidity on various digital asset trading platforms; OCX skyrocketed by 330.67%: According to the X network market, its platform currency skyrocketed by 330.67% today, with a current price of $0.0767 and a trading volume of 287.37 million. According to Ye Ding, the cornerstone investor of X Network, Hash Capital, X Network will launch the global ecological construction plan X-PLAN, which includes 80% of the platform’s weekly transaction fees as rewards, cloud computing power mall, super nodes, and OCX deduction Fees, etc. OCX is the fuel in the above-mentioned planned application scenarios, and is used to create a closed-loop ecosystem of X Network. [2018/6/13] (2) After public registration of equity, use Chia to fund shareholder activities, such as repurchase of shares or dividends to shareholders; (3) Use Chia to invest in promising projects to expand Chia in assets and finance Function and influence in the technology market, but before the project is publicly registered for equity, investment cannot be made; (4) The project party may use Chia to add additional farming rewards (farming) or otherwise motivate farmers (farmers) or developers to verify Or developing web or software. 5. Overall analysis From Chia's white paper, it can be seen that Chia's Token issuance model is similar to that of Bitcoin, focusing on "green bitcoin" out of the circle, which often makes people ignore Chia's own technology and the strength of its investment lineup. Technically, the first new Nakamoto consensus algorithm since Bitcoin was created, and a brand-new programming language Chialist was written to make up for all the defects and deficiencies of the two public chains, BTC and ETH. The investor is the lead investor of Coinbase and A16Z, the top Wall Street venture capital institutions. The 21 million Tokens held by the team in pre-mining are currently being used in compliance and prudently. 2. Analysis of the value of Chia’s investment funds 1. The official website data shows that the output of a single T has dropped sharply, and the computing power of the entire network has increased rapidly. There was an obvious downward trend, and the computing power of the entire network also increased rapidly to 2.67EiB. Similar to BTC, Chia has a fixed time output and a halving cycle. The mining model is currently relatively simple and not as complicated as Filecoin. The final price will determine the miners' income. Although the OTC transaction has not yet started, it can be predicted The price of XCH will rise after listing on the exchange, which will attract more miners to enter the market, but it may soon reach a balance between computing power and income, and even risk excess computing power. 2. Analysis of miners’ payback cycle and annual selling pressure There are two indispensable parts in Chia’s mining process: making a plot file (usually referred to as p-map, because the official translation of plot is farmland) and mining (officially translated as farming), On the Chia network, miners are called farmers, and the rewards they get are farming rewards (Farming). (1) Analysis of the payback cycle As of May 7, 2021, the off-market price is 600 USDT, and the output per T is 0.0033. The cost of the mining machine is calculated based on a certain miner in the market: USD 102,400/1P. The power consumption of 1P is 2608W, the electricity fee per P is 25 yuan (the electricity price is calculated at 0.4 yuan/kWh), and the technical service fee is calculated at 15%. On May 7, 2021, calculate the possible payback cycle of miners: 102400/[(1024*0.0033*85%*600)-25/6.5]≈60 days The P disk cannot generate income immediately, and it will take a certain amount of time. Calculate the p-disk time and various unmeasurable factors, and relax the payback cycle to about 85 days. Generally, BTC electricity fee accounts for about 10% of daily income, ETH electricity fee accounts for about 8% of daily income, and Chia electricity fee accounts for about 0.34% of daily income. Chia's electricity consumption is very friendly to miners. (2) Analysis of annual selling pressure In the first year of the XCH release plan, the farming rewards for miners are: 3,363,840 XCH. That is, the annual selling pressure of miners in the first year is 3,363,840 XCH. On May 7, 2021, 1P will produce 3.37 Tokens per day, and the miners entering the market may choose to recover their costs quickly, so many miners may sell Tokens in the early stage. If the miners pay back the cost in one year at the latest, and the cost is calculated according to the market price of 102,400 US dollars, then the average price of XCH this year needs to be above 83 US dollars. If the price is lower than 83 US dollars, then the miners who do not have cost advantages will be eliminated , and miners who entered the market late. The inflection point price at which miners’ profits drop sharply is as follows: 102400/(3.37*365)≈US$83. Because the output of 1P has been changing and showing a trend of rapid decline, the daily output will decrease in the later period, and the price at the inflection point will be Will be above $83. (Note: The above data are all estimates for the current month. Due to the rapid decline in the output of a single T, we have no way to make estimates later, and we also have no way to make inferences based on current indicators. Therefore, please judge by yourself when entering and investing. At your own risk.) The current price of XCH on the trading platform is around 3800 RMB, and there is a downward trend. Therefore, the price in the secondary market is above 83 US dollars, and there is still a predictable market space. 3. Summary and analysis of Chia 1. Summary of Chia income model The residual value of the hard disk after Chia mining is very high, so taking a step back, even if the Chia investment fails, the miners can directly use the hard disk to invest in other storage competitions In the end, second-hand hard drives can still be sold if it is not possible, effectively reducing the cost risk. The Chia token design shows that the daily output is 9,216, and the official reserve will not be used for transactions. When it goes online, the mining output of Token does not exceed 500,000, so Chia's circulation is small. To sum up, the Chia project may attract more miners in the later stage, so it may show an investment situation where the earlier you join, the higher the returns. 2. Chia risk warning From the above analysis, it is not difficult to see that the biggest risk of the Chia project is the occurrence of mining accidents caused by excess computing power. Moreover, the Chia mining mode is relatively simple, coupled with the current high popularity, it is likely to attract a large number of miners to participate in a short period of time, and the rapid increase in computing power will also lead to a sharp drop in the output of a single T. The income of miners depends on the market The off-market price shows a great correlation, and the off-market price itself has a strong uncertainty. The reason why the editor puts the risk at the end of the writing is also to sound a wake-up call for everyone. Although the Chia project is very popular in the market, many trading platforms have launched futures or spot goods one after another, but the investment under the heat is even more Be careful. The effective reduction of cost and risk does not mean that the Chia project is a zero-risk investment. After all, high returns must be accompanied by high risks. Investors are requested to invest carefully. This article was originally created by the public account of Daling Think Tank. The content-zce is for information transmission and does not constitute any investment advice.


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