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BTC will make major gains in the second half of the year?



After a massive first quarter rally, Bitcoin (BTC) has been relatively quiet so far in the second quarter, even as Ethereum (ETH), Dogecoin (DOGE) and other crypto assets exploded.

In 2020 and early 2021, changing macroeconomic conditions helped fuel BTC's gains and brought in a new wave of institutional investors. Now, macroeconomic conditions may once again shift in favor of BTC.

After strengthening during March, the U.S. dollar (DXY) weakened during April and fell again last week. Many investors now expect monetary easing to last longer than previously thought amid signs that the economy is still recovering. Historically, BTC has risen when the dollar weakens. In the short term, this could be good news for BTC.

Sulifeng will suspend the sales of BTC/ETH series related products: Sulifeng issued an announcement saying: In response to the latest domestic industry regulatory policy requirements, adhering to the long-term business attitude of legal compliance, the Sulifeng platform has decided to suspend Sales of BTC/ETH series related products; FIL series products will continue to serve. For the BTC/ETH series products that have been purchased, the platform will launch a corresponding processing plan in the near future, and the specific plan is subject to the announcement notice. Other than that, other operations on the platform are normal. [2021/5/26 22:45:57]

Additionally, data shows that the BTC market is in healthier conditions than it was a few months ago. Open interest in BTC perpetual contracts has reached its lowest level in months, indicating that leverage is being reduced from the system. This lays a healthier foundation for the next upward move in the BTC market.

BTC breaks through the $40,100 mark with an intraday increase of 5.73%: According to data from Huobi Global, BTC has risen in the short term, breaking through the $40,100 mark, and is now at $40,103.36, with an intraday increase of 5.73%. The market fluctuates greatly, so please do a good job in risk control. [2021/2/8 19:14:39]

Bitcoin’s hashrate surged to record highs in early May after a sharp drop in April when regional power outages in China forced some mining machines offline. The drop spooked some investors, who sold fearing the possibility of a bigger drop. But in less than a month, the computing power has fully recovered and returned to a higher level than before the drop.

The increase in hashrate is a healthy sign of Bitcoin's continued growth. Furthermore, the rally shows that Bitcoin is resilient and able to recover quickly after surprises.

BTC fell below the $40,500 mark with an intraday drop of 0.04%: data from Huobi Global shows that BTC fell short-term and fell below the $40,500 mark. It is now at $40,497.97, with an intraday drop of 0.04%. The market fluctuates greatly, please do a good job in risk control . [2021/1/10 15:48:08]

While retail investors have been piling into DOGE and other small-cap crypto assets, retail investors in BTC continue to grow. The number of addresses holding relatively small amounts, between 0.01 and 1 BTC, has increased by 710,000 since the beginning of the year, with a big spike in April. In 2020, the number of addresses holding between 0.01 and 1 BTC increased by a total of 610,000.

In another sign, the value of on-chain transfers surged to an all-time high in April. There was a total of $447 billion in transfer value in April, compared to $366 billion in March and $319 billion in February.

ZB (ZB) Early Quotes: BTC is now at $9,178: According to the market data of the ZB (ZB) trading platform, as of 09:50 today, BTC is now at $9,178 (+0.05%), and ZB points are now at $0.22 (+0.18%). According to the statistics of CoinMarketCap, the total market value of digital currencies is 271.4 billion US dollars, the total 24-hour transaction volume is 49.04 billion US dollars, and the market value of Bitcoin accounts for 62.2%. 25 of the top 100 digital currencies in the global market capitalization have risen, and 75 have fallen. The mainstream asset prices are: ETH at $237 (-0.41%), EOS at $2.57 (+0.22%), XRP at $0.19 (-1.25%), and LTC at $42.3 (-0.50%). The top three digital currencies of ZB within 24 hours are: MANA (+34.95%), DSF (+32.78%), and SLT (+17.23%). [2020/7/21]

The 1-hour contract market liquidation exceeded 21.68 million US dollars, and the BTC liquidation exceeded 15.9 million US dollars: According to the statistical report of the contract market, the total network liquidation of the contract market in the past 1 hour was 21.68 million US dollars. Among them, the top three currencies with liquidation volume are BTC with USD 15.9 million, ETH with USD 3.26 million, and EOS with USD 1.23 million. [2020/3/16]

Despite relatively depressed price action, the Bitcoin ecosystem continues to expand. On May 5, NYDIG announced that BTC will enter hundreds of U.S. banks later this year. Bank customers are expected to be able to buy, sell and hold BTC through their existing accounts, potentially bringing in many new investors. In another sign of growth, Square recently shared that BTC accounted for 15% of Cash App's first-quarter gross profit, up from 8% a year ago.

Bitcoin technology is also undergoing major upgrades. The activation of Taproot has officially begun, as miners have started signaling their support. Taproot, expected to go live later this year, will bring a number of major improvements to the way bitcoin transactions work, including reduced fees and increased privacy. It will also lay the groundwork for enhanced smart contract functionality and improvements to the Lightning Network.

With so much going on in the cryptocurrency space, it's easy to forget that Bitcoin is still growing rapidly. Given the positive momentum on most fronts, Bitcoin could see another surge in the second half of the year.

Network Data

Metric Summary

Ethereum (ETH) continued to breach all-time highs this past week, with on-chain metrics rising across the board as a result. The adjusted value of transfers has surged by a whopping 149% week-to-week, averaging $31.9 billion per day, more than double BTC’s daily average of $14 billion. Fees also resumed rising, growing to $29.1 million per day. And daily active-zce addresses increased to over 803,000, a 6.3% increase in a week.


Let’s dive into some of the new metrics below. And, as always, you can explore and download our community data with our free graphing tool and formula builder.

The BTC age distribution band, also known as the "HODL wave," shows the supply of BTC grouped by the time since it was last moved on-chain. HODL waves give a macro view of how the BTC supply has changed over the years.

Looking up from the bottom of the chart, the red band shows the percentage of supply that was recently active, ranging from less than a day to 90-180 days. "1-7 days" band refers to the percentage of total supply held for at least 1 day but less than 7 days, "7-30 days" refers to the percentage of supply held for at least 7 days but less than 30 days, etc.

In addition to the traditional market caps, we've added several new market cap versions. The Realized cap was launched in 2018, and it gives a longer-term, slow-moving measure of Bitcoin's total valuation. Realized cap is calculated by individually valuing each unit of Bitcoin at its last transaction price on the chain. Free-floating market capitalization calculates market capitalization by taking a more accurate measure of the free-flowing supply in the market.

The Market Cap to Realized Market Cap Ratio (MVRV) has historically been a relatively accurate indicator of local market cycles. We have now added free float MVRV to the community metrics, which adjusts MVRV to account for illiquid supply.

Finally, we added a set of supply distribution metrics. The chart below shows the percentage of the total BTC supply held by different ranges of addresses. Looking up from the bottom of the chart, the first bin shows the percentage controlled by addresses holding 0 to 1 BTC, and the next bin shows the supply controlled by addresses holding 1 to 10 BTC.

Nate Maddrey Author

Translated by Zheng Qirui

Editor Zheng Qirui


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