Disagreement appears, and the price of virtual currency enters the adjustment stage

Original title: The price of virtual currency enters the adjustment stage

The spot price of Bitcoin has fluctuated greatly recently, and analysts remind ordinary investors to be alert to investment risks. By Zhu Huiqing (Published by Xinhua News Agency)

Recently, the virtual currency market has been booming again. At the beginning of April, the total market value of global virtual currencies exceeded 2 trillion US dollars, setting a new record, which is equivalent to the combined market value of Google and Tesla. Among them, the rise of Ethereum is particularly eye-catching. Since late March, the price of Ethereum has been rising all the way, and hit a record high of $2,144 on April 2. The market value was once close to $240 billion, second only to Bitcoin.

The ratio of long and short positions in BTC contracts is 1.24, and there are differences between the long and short sides of elite accounts: Analysts said that as of 10:30 on August 20, according to OKEx transaction big data, the ratio of long and short positions in BTC contracts was 1.24, and the market was long The number of people has a certain advantage; the quarterly contract basis has dropped to around 200 US dollars, the perpetual contract funding rate is still positive, and the total amount of delivery and perpetual contract positions has fallen below 1.2 billion US dollars, but the strength of many parties is still relatively strong; BTC delivery and In terms of elite positions in perpetual contracts, short accounts account for 45.00% and long positions account for 21.72%. There are still differences between the long and short positions of elite accounts, so continue to pay attention to the changes in the positions of large players. Judging from the data of option contracts, the ratio of call/bear active-zce buying is 0.8, the number of people actively buying call options has decreased, and both bullish and bearish parties are balanced. [2020/8/20]

Li Weilian, chief researcher of OKEx Research Institute, which focuses on digital asset research, believes that the prices of mainstream virtual currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have been rising since the second half of last year, which is mainly closely related to changes in the global economic situation. In response to the economic recession brought about by the epidemic, major central banks around the world have generally adopted extremely loose monetary policies since last year, pushing up market inflation expectations. In order to avoid the risk of inflation, the demand of investors to hoard cash has evolved into the demand for virtual currencies such as gold and gold substitute bitcoin. A large number of listed companies in Europe and the United States began to purchase virtual currencies, which in turn pushed up the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The three major government agencies in India are divided on whether cryptocurrencies should be banned through regulation: According to bitcoin news, the Ministry of Finance, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the Income Tax Department, and the Special Investigation Unit are currently criticizing the upcoming bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies. expressed their opinions. The sources noted that India’s finance ministry is in favor of regulating cryptocurrencies, but the income tax department is not. India’s Special Investigations Team (SIT) has expressed its desire to ban bitcoin after uncovering at least four cases in which cryptocurrencies were used to pay for drugs, the Guardian reported on Sunday. Composed of officers from the Enforcement Directorate (ED), Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) and Income Tax Division. [2018/4/24]

In February of this year, Tesla bought $1.5 billion in bitcoin. Earlier in the second half of last year, mobile payment giant Square invested $50 million in bitcoin, and asset management company Stone Ridge Holdings Group purchased more than 10,000 bitcoin.

G20 leaders divided over cryptocurrency regulation may not take concrete action: According to Reuters, people familiar with the G20 summit said that at the G20 summit in Argentina on Monday, world financial leaders may stop taking any measures aimed at regulating regulation. Specific actions for cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin as there is a divide in thinking. No action is expected at the summit as policymakers have yet to agree on a common strategy to tackle the problem. [2018/3/20]

The continuous expansion of application scenarios is also one of the reasons for this round of virtual currency price increases. The reporter noticed that recently Tesla announced that it has begun to accept Bitcoin as payment for car purchases, and the online payment giant PayPal has announced that it allows the use of virtual currency to settle transactions. This further expands the application scenarios and usage requirements of virtual currency.

The strong market demand drives the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum all the way up. Investors' interest in virtual currencies has also expanded to other currencies such as platform coins and altcoins.

Taking platform coins as an example, Ouyi Coin, Binance Coin, etc. have all shown "hot" prices recently. "Binance Coin, a platform currency, is similar to brokerage stocks in the traditional stock market. Due to the popularity of the virtual currency market, a large number of investors poured into virtual currency exchanges, driving up the price of its platform currency, and virtual currency exchanges have also become The most direct beneficiary of this wave of 'bull market'." William Lee said.

It is worth noting that although the current market value of Bitcoin is above US$1 trillion, it still maintains the trend of "one big family". However, since the record high of US$61,000 in mid-March, the market of Bitcoin has experienced sharp rises and falls, and has been hovering around. Around $60,000, no new breakthroughs have been made.

"Bitcoin has risen nearly 5 times since it started the 'bull market' in October last year. From historical experience, this round of 'bull market' is long enough for Bitcoin with a 4-year 'bull-bear' cycle. According to Li William's analysis, the current price of Bitcoin has entered a stage of sideways adjustment, and the market's expectations for future trends have diverged.

The differences are mainly due to two factors: first, whether the loose monetary policies of major central banks around the world can continue, and whether the global economy will still face the problem of rising inflation in the future; There will be breakthroughs brought about by new technologies and business models, which is uncertain.

"Whether virtual currencies such as Bitcoin can continue to rise in the future, or even break new highs, depends on the monetary policy tone of the world's major central banks in the second half of the year and whether they can open up new applications." William Li said.

Economic Daily-China Economic Net reporter Li Hualin

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