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Director of the Financial Research Center of Fudan University: China has a first-mover advantage on the global digital currency track



Original title: China has a first-mover advantage on the global digital currency track

Sun Lijian (Director of Financial Research Center of Fudan University)

A few days ago, financial regulators in many countries, including Turkey and India, have successively promulgated strict regulatory measures for encrypted digital assets. There is also news in the market that the U.S. Department of the Treasury will accuse several financial institutions of using cryptocurrencies for money laundering. Affected by this, on April 18, Bitcoin once fell below $52,000 per coin, falling by more than 17% within a day, and then rebounded sharply, bringing encrypted digital assets and digital currencies to the forefront again.

The sharp decline in Bitcoin this round is actually an adjustment that speculators want to use as an excuse to make "cash is king and pockets are safe". Today's upsurge in investing in Bitcoin actually reflects people's expectations and consensus on future scenarios, that is, among the existing financial asset savings channels, Bitcoin is considered to have higher returns, not because Bitcoin drives the economy. Growth forms an ecological environment for value creation. In order to deal with the impact of the epidemic and get out of the economic downturn, the central banks of many countries around the world have adopted a large number of loose monetary policies. In this context, the track of traditional financial savings may be affected by the expected rise in future inflation. Therefore, some investors are actually pinning their hopes Earnings based on Bitcoin can outperform future inflation. That is to say, people's psychology of investing in Bitcoin is not to think that Bitcoin itself has value, but to get more funds through Bitcoin investment.

Qian Jun from Fudan University: Bitcoin is not gold, and it is not the best asset to avoid inflation risks: On December 12-13, the "2021 Phoenix Finance Summit" hosted by and undertaken by Finance was held in Shanghai. Qian Jun, executive dean of Fanhai International School of Finance at Fudan University and professor of finance, shared the current financial risks and opportunities at the scene. When talking about virtual currency, he said that virtual currency represented by Bitcoin is not gold, not a mainstream asset, and not the best asset to avoid inflation risks.

When talking about the reason, he said that the price of virtual currency is too volatile and extremely unstable, and there are still many problems with virtual currency, such as energy consumption, which is not in line with contemporary environmental protection themes. In terms of technology, Qian Jun said that virtual currency is not watertight, and the current technology has already emerged the risk of being hacked.

Qian Jun said that there are two reasons for the repeated popularity of virtual currency. One is that many people invest in virtual currency without paying attention to its basic aspects. Second, after the virtual currency transaction is completed, it also plays the role of anonymous transaction and transfer of assets. ( [2021/12/12 7:34:19]

On the whole, there are three issues that need to be paid attention to behind the increased supervision of Bitcoin by the central banks of various countries, and behind the recent "roller coaster" market of Bitcoin.

Voice | Fudan University Chen Wenjun: Serving the real economy through index observation can promote the development of blockchain technology: Golden Finance Report, Chen Wenjun, professor of Zhangjiang Research Institute of Fudan University and executive director of the Digital Economy Research Center, said that the guiding role of the stock exchange in all economies, The Shenzhen Stock Exchange released the blockchain index, which can promote the development of blockchain technology by observing the situation of (blockchain) serving the real economy through the index. The emphasis on this technology has also done a good job in cultivating the blockchain market . [2019/12/25]

First, the central banks of various countries have announced to strengthen the management of encrypted digital assets such as Bitcoin, which is also because the market's pursuit of Bitcoin has swallowed up the effectiveness of monetary policies of various countries in supporting the real economy to a certain extent. Bitcoin investment is actually a way of allocating resources from the real to the virtual. The market uses Bitcoin to "hedge" the central bank's over-issued currency (including the intention of money laundering, and some people use encrypted digital assets to evade supervision) , which in turn affects the effect of monetary policy, greatly reducing the effectiveness of the policy tools adopted by the central banks of these countries in response to the economic downturn. The loose monetary policies of the central banks of various countries lead to a decline in the purchasing power of currencies in the future and an increase in inflation expectations. The rise in commodity prices is the effect of capital promotion, which affects the recovery of the vitality of the real economy). The market is self-interested and will not consciously adjust the price instability and employment instability encountered by the macro economy. For those who are not yet able to enter the Bitcoin track, if the income increase cannot keep up with inflation expectations, then Will reduce employment willingness, which will further affect social stability.

Voice | Fudan University Professor Si Xueming: There are two reasons why the blockchain is used by some lawbreakers: According to CCTV news, recently, Si Xueming, a professor at Fudan University and director of the Blockchain Special Committee of the China Computer Federation, was interviewed Shi said that according to statistics last year, as of March 2018, there were 456 enterprises in China whose main business was blockchain. But at the same time, another number is shocking. There are more than 3,000 online platforms that carry out fraud under the banner of the blockchain, which fully demonstrates that the blockchain is used by criminals with ulterior motives to deceive common people. He believes that there are two reasons. One is that the blockchain is a very new technology, and the other is that the blockchain technology comes from this digital world, which is not easy to explain to ordinary people. deceive the common people. [2019/12/10]

Second, the U.S. Treasury Department released news that it will crack down on financial institutions using cryptocurrencies to launder money, or it may be out of consideration for consolidating the international status of the U.S. dollar. Many ordinary people fail to distinguish digital currency from Bitcoin. At the same time, the United States started late in the development and promotion of digital currency in the US dollar. Therefore, this US crackdown on Bitcoin also hopes to prompt the market to sell Bitcoin for exchange. Cash back in U.S. dollars, and indirectly break China's leading edge in the cross-border use of digital currencies, and continue to maintain the U.S. dollar's monopoly position under the existing international currency system.

Voice | Fudan University Professor Si Xueming: Henan should promote the application of blockchain in the fields of logistics and supply chain finance: On the afternoon of December 2, Si Xueming, a professor at Fudan University and director of the China Computer Federation The 82nd department-level leading cadre Jingwei forum sponsored by the Henan Provincial Party Committee’s Working Committee stated that the key to the rapid development of Henan’s blockchain industry and applications depends on emancipating the mind and pioneering and innovating. Henan should promote the application of blockchain in logistics, anti-counterfeiting traceability of agricultural products and food, market supervision, e-government, health care, reform of "decentralization, management and service" and supply chain finance, accelerate the cultivation of blockchain emerging industries, and vigorously strengthen military and civilian industries. Integration, and strive to be at the forefront of the country in terms of blockchain independent innovation technology and characteristic applications. (Official website of Henan Provincial People's Government) [2019/12/3]

Third, one of the fundamental reasons for the volatility of the Bitcoin market lies in the demand of some speculators to "go short in order to go long". At present, some people in the market firmly believe that today's credit currency lacks the constraints of currency anchors like the gold standard in the past, so in the future, when countries issue more currency to solve economic recovery, the value of people's savings will shrink. Bitcoin The greater the room for appreciation. The volatile trend of Bitcoin is precisely due to the high-level adjustment of this part of speculators. They wait for the "insufficient belief" people to throw out their chips and then enter the market again. Therefore, Bitcoin rebounded after the sharp drop that day.

However, to truly understand the turmoil in the Bitcoin market, it is necessary to return to its essential attributes and clarify the difference between digital currency and digital assets.

A few days ago, Zhou Xiaochuan, vice chairman of the Boao Forum for Asia and former governor of the People's Bank of China, said that it is necessary to distinguish between digital currency and digital assets. It is not necessary to draw conclusions about digital assets such as Bitcoin, but "we must remind and be careful." In addition, Li Bo, deputy governor of the central bank, also emphasized that Bitcoin is an encrypted asset and an investment option, and it is not a currency itself.

This series of utterances is actually to tell the public that the central bank's digital currency is different from Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a digital asset without the support of economic fundamentals. People invest in it for reserve or speculative purposes. Therefore, it has actually withdrawn from circulation and exists only as a reserve asset and financial asset. The digital currency linked to M0 launched by the People's Bank of China is a currency for circulation, consumption, and trade. Therefore, we can clearly distinguish digital currency and digital assets from the usage scenarios. The former is applicable in the value-creating payment system, while the latter is the price effect of asset allocation driven by funds.

After the society of some developed countries has formed the inertia of credit card payment for a long time, it is difficult to quickly switch to the new track of digital currency in terms of infrastructure and public perception. For example, the United States not only lacks technology in the application of digital currency, but also has the risk of being replaced by a new currency system, and the opportunity cost of promoting the application of digital currency is very high.

At present, China has built a new centralized digital currency scenario by launching the central bank digital currency, and is gradually creating a new digital currency ecology, and has established a first-mover advantage worldwide. First, Chinese society has become accustomed to the digital payment method of "QR code payment", and it is easy to adapt to the use mode of the central bank's digital currency; The method of "red envelope" gradually drives all parties to enter the use scene of digital currency, which is a condition that other countries do not have. In the future, China can create new forms in the field of international trade and international investment through digital currency, so the internationalization of RMB (6.4995, -0.0108, -0.17%) will be a matter of course.


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