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Dismantling the trend of gold in the past 50 years in detail.How does this inspire the development of Bitcoin?



We have a little time today, let's expand a little bit today. Regarding the point of view of BTC, investing still needs to go back to historical research, so you see so many people telling you that people who invest like to read books on history and philosophy. Because you go back to history, you can "talk about everything from ancient to modern times."

"Respond when things come, and stop when things go away" is by no means a superfluous word, but truly belongs to the realm above "Alaya Consciousness". When talking about BTC, we have to turn out the historical trend chart of gold and do some research to see when gold went up all the way in those years, and then what factors led to the decline of its historical status today.

This is the trend chart of gold in the past 50 years, I guess you can't see it clearly. Let me break it down:

The following is the price chart of gold from 1968 to 1980

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On November 18, 1967, the British pound depreciated for the second time after the war, and on March 17, 1968, the "gold pool" disintegrated. The "Smithsonian Agreement" was signed, the US dollar was officially decoupled from gold, and then we saw Comrade de Gaulle announce that he would withdraw gold from the United States.

Immediately afterwards, US President Nixon closed the gold window, stopping governments or central banks from holding US dollars to exchange for gold. The dollar broke free from the prison of gold and floated freely in the foreign exchange market.

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So we can see that the U.S. dollar has soared from 40 U.S. dollars to 180 U.S. dollars in 1967. At that time, there was no excessive currency, no fast-growing currency system, no economic crisis, no complete modern industrial system, and no information threshold. A world economic system with extremely low Internet and transaction thresholds.

Even so, after decoupling the U.S. dollar, gold is still like a runaway wild horse, all the way up. According to today's various components, a 400 times or even higher increase multiple can be seen, so it is also possible to see the increase of BTC in this way. It can't be overstated.

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Let’s look at the picture above again. When we really saw that gold started to rise, the Iran-Iraq war broke out in the Middle East after 1978, and the world fell into the second oil crisis.

So we see:

In 1978, crude oil soared to $30 a barrel, and the price of gold rose to $244.

In 1979, the price of gold rose to $500. In the same year, the inflation rate in the United States was only 12%.

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On the first two trading days of January 1980, the price of gold reached $634. U.S. Treasury Secretary Miller announced that the Treasury Department would no longer sell gold. In less than 30 minutes, the price of gold rose by $30 to $715, and hit $850 on January 21. new highs.

U.S. President Carter had to come out to suppress the gold market, saying that he would do whatever it takes to maintain the status of the United States in the world. At the close of the day, the price of gold fell by $50.

On February 22, 1980, the price of gold plummeted by $145. The first gold bull market in modern times came to an end, but since 1968, gold has been in a bull market for 12 years, and the average annualized return on investment in gold is 30%.

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However, since 1981, under the suppression of the Federal Reserve and the general environment of world peace, gold has been falling all the way. Around 1980, the world was singing and dancing, the rise of the four Asian tigers, the Japanese manufacturing industry took the lead in the world, the US dollar continued to oversupply, and other central banks around the world continued to follow suit and oversupply currencies. However, under the background of prosperous economic development, gold remained sluggish.

Until 1987, after the U.S. stock market crashed, the price of gold rebounded, and then fell all the way after reaching the peak of $486. In the past ten years, the inflation rate in the United States has increased by 90%, and Japan, which is known for its low inflation rate, is also at the level of 20%, which is flooding the world.

Even in 1991, when the European central bank system was officially established and the United States planned the Kuwait War, gold only rebounded slightly. In the same year, the Soviet Union announced its disintegration, and the world entered a pattern of one superpower and many powers.

From the 1990s to 2005, for more than ten years, gold has remained in the range of around $500. Although we encountered the economic crisis in 1998 and the Internet bubble in 2001, the overall fluctuations were not very large. This means that gold has become a product with configuration attributes at this stage.

From the perspective of the entire history of gold, the main factors in the world at each stage are the core reasons that affect the long-term trend of gold.

Let's sort it out.

The whole trend from 1968 to 1980 was that the U.S. dollar was decoupled from gold, and the U.S. dollar became a free exchange rate system. Then, in order to establish the market position of the world currency system, the U.S. dollar continued to disrupt the situation in the Middle East. The world was in chaos, and the oil crisis became a major event in the world. , and oil is the most important factor of production in the world's industrial system, so oil affects the US dollar, and the US dollar controls oil. The volatility and uncertainty of the US dollar has pushed up the market position of gold, so we have seen a 12-year gold bull market .

Then there was the gold shock market around 1980-2000. Why didn't gold fluctuate greatly in the past 20 years? There are 2 main reasons for my analysis:

1. Gold is only a configuration-type precious metal, not a necessary production material for production, and is not affected by market supply and demand.

2. The U.S. dollar has already controlled oil around 1978, and the Swift system is also firmly controlled by the old U.S. The hegemony of the world monetary system has been stabilized. Although there are still many fluctuations in the future, these fluctuations cannot change the whole situation. Dying, there is no situation to compete with the United States. The time of Nixon's visit to China has already explained everything. So the world was already in chaos at that time, so the rising factor of gold was lost. Therefore, gold has become a configuration product with little fluctuation.

After 2005, due to the emergence of an economic crisis in the United States, the US dollar escaped from risk exposure, so gold became the best risk haven, so we saw that gold rose from 500 to around 1900 US dollars.

After briefly describing the 50-year trend chart of gold, everyone should be very clear. The main factor behind the price fluctuation of gold is the stability of the US dollar.

If you make a corresponding review of the historical trend of BTC, I believe it will not be difficult to find out the corresponding main influencing factors; I have listed the specific influencing factors in the previous article, and I will discuss them again Find a time to do a simple sorting out, which is why I said that the bull market foundation of BTC still exists in the short to medium term.

Let’s go back to the possible short-term risk points. Now BTC has returned to the 60,000 mark. This time, the corresponding burst point is 62,000. If it does not hit a new high, the medium-term consensus and profit-making risk will be killed.

If it continues to a new high, the risk will be converted into a stronger FOMO sentiment, which will once again drive the entire market crazy. The recent flurry of small coins is driven by the strength of BTC and ETH.


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Dismantling the trend of gold in the past 50 years in detail.How does this inspire the development of Bitcoin?

We have a little time today, let's expand a little bit today. Regarding the point of view of BTC, investing still needs to go back to historical research.

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