When will the current bull market peak? 7 indicators to help you judge when to get off

In the second half of last year, people often asked: Is this a bull market? Today, no one has raised this issue, and even the most obtuse people know that we are in a mad cow situation.

Now more people ask is: when to get off? In other words, are we at the beginning of the ox, in the middle of the ox, or already at the end of the ox? Basically, there is no right answer to this question, because almost no one knows. Anyone who swears and tells you the conclusion is basically either insufficient knowledge or a liar.

This article will also not tell you the conclusion, because the conclusion will most likely be slapped in the face in the future. This article aims to tell you some indicators that you can refer to, hoping to help you get off the car one day in the future.

I still remember that when Bitcoin was pulled back by more than 20,000, a group of people jumped out of the car in a hurry. A senior boss felt quite happy, and casually posted a Weibo saying: "These people seem to have been waiting for a long time for a big meal. But after eating a starter, he left in a hurry, and the rest of the meal didn't even start."

This is actually a more reliable reference than K-line or any other indicator. According to the big cycle theory of Bitcoin’s previous 4-year cycle, breaking through the previous high point should be a sign of the beginning of the bull market, not the end.

Crypto Analyst: Bitcoin's current bull cycle has not yet peaked, expected in November 2022: Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten predicts when the Bitcoin bull market will end in a new video. When Merten looked back at the previous Bitcoin bull market, he found that it did not seem to be close to the top of this cycle. "The 11-year price history ... what's really interesting is that we're seeing each cycle stretch out 11 months to 13 months. So if we follow history, we can add another 12 months here. 47 months is what we're currently The expected length of the cycle we're in...we're nowhere near the expected 47 months - November 2022 is the top we should expect." Merten added that while many crypto traders and investors have lost interest in the market, But there aren't many signs that this is a bitcoin top. (The Daily Hodl)[2021/7/12 0:43:41]

On the premise that the price was 20,000 US dollars before the previous round, getting off at less than 30,000 US dollars, or starting to short for a long time at this time, is a manifestation of a serious deviation in the understanding of the cryptocurrency market and even the cycle theory of the financial market. .

Webster Ratings: This round of bull market may continue for 9-12 months: Webster Ratings tweeted today that our "long-term theme" has not changed due to the performance of the current or trading week. From a mid-term perspective, we believe that the market will still continue its bull market for 9-12 months. [2021/3/11 18:34:51]

So, has the $60,000 bitcoin reached its peak? It's hard to say, but according to the previous cycle theory, the previous three times higher price and market value seem to be lower, whether it is linear or exponential in the first two rounds, which is why most institutions or bosses are conservative. In this round of bull market, BTC sees 80,000-100,000 US dollars, and aggressively sees 150,000-200,000 US dollars or even higher.

From this point of view alone, we seem to be in a bullish position. If ETH is used as an indicator, if ETH is 1,500 high before, the current $2,000 ETH is more like a start, and it may not even be considered a bull. superior.

Every peak of mad bull in history ended with the proportion of Bitcoin reaching a low point.

Report: Professional Traders, Whales and Institutions Are the Biggest Profiters from Bitcoin’s Current Bull Run: A new report from OKEx’s data arm shows professional traders, whales and institutions taking full advantage of Bitcoin’s recent bull run, while retail investors Traders basically just go with the flow. The report, which looked at OKEx trading data from August to the end of November, concluded that traders who traded more than 2 BTC have been cashing out, and are taking a more cautious approach as smaller traders continue to buy. The way. “While a whale can easily execute a few $100,000 trades per day, a large trader with only about $100,000 in trading capital could theoretically do the same,” the report said. The same goes for financial institutions, which are known to trade Large-scale buying and selling, but these transactions may also be attributed to whales." (Decrypt) [2020/12/12 14:59:56]

This is easy to understand. In the mad cow market, chickens and dogs rise to heaven, and even many junk projects without fundamentals can be speculated into the sky. Therefore, the market value of altcoins is getting higher and higher, and the growth rate is getting faster and faster. The relative market value and price growth of BTC is It will be much slower, so BTC will reach a low point in the overall market value of the entire cryptocurrency.

58 Academy Tim: Institutional risk hedging, Ethereum 2.0, and Defi are the three main reasons for this round of bull market: On the evening of August 5th, Tim, a senior researcher at 58 Academy, visited the media live broadcast room and said that the main reasons behind this round of technical bull market in the currency circle are: There are three: First, under the influence of the global epidemic, the central bank’s continuous release of water has led to inflation, prompting institutions to use Bitcoin for risk hedging on a large scale. According to 58COIN data, contract positions began to increase significantly in late July. On August 2, the trading volume increased by 216% compared with the peak value of the previous week, setting the highest single-day trading volume since 3.12. From the trading volume, it can be seen that the net inflow of funds has reached bull level. Secondly, if a real bull market wants to come, it still needs an unprecedented and sustainable story, and there is no doubt that ETH2.0 is the main body of this story. In the past two weeks, Ethereum has skyrocketed by 75%, rushing all the way to the pressure zone of the 400-month line. It shows that the market continues to maintain confidence in ETH2.0. Finally, DefiMaketCap statistics show that the total market value of Defi products on August 2 has reached 8 billion US dollars. It has increased by 4 times in just one month. It shows that the market's recognition of Defi continues to rise. [2020/8/5]

At the peak of the bull market on January 13, 2018, BTC accounted for 32.45%. The current proportion of BTC is 53.3%. Judging from this indicator, we also seem to be in a relatively safe bullish stage.

Analysis | In this bull market, the market value of Bitcoin may reach $1 trillion: According to Bitcoinist, Obsidian Capital VC Fund partner Arnie Hill believes that in the current bull market cycle, the market value of Bitcoin can reach $1 trillion. Hill said: "The price of Bitcoin broke through the significant resistance of $9,000, but the number of orders on various exchanges is actually very small, which proves that funds and institutions have accumulated BTC when they are close to the low point. The price of Bitcoin is in 1-2 hours. Thousands of dollars have risen during the period, reminiscent of the bull market in 2017. [2019/6/23]

However, it needs to be remembered that in the last round of bull market, on December 7, 2017, BTC reached 66% of the market value when it was close to 20,000 US dollars, and then fell to 32.45% in just one month in various cottages, declaring that The bull market is over.

I don't know if Niu Mo's script this time will be a repeat of last time.

There are several salient features in the middle and late stages of each bull market:

1. The rise of many cottages is completely unreasonable, and they often rise several times or tens of times without any fundamentals, until you are convinced or can't help getting in the car.

2. The valuations of many copycats are exaggerated, and the valuations of celebrity copycats are even more exaggerated. The market value of hundreds of millions and billions of dollars can be hundreds of millions of dollars, but there are not many users. They all think it is expensive and dare not buy it.

3. New projects are emerging one after another, making you feel overwhelmed and overwhelmed. It is impossible for non-full-timers in the industry to see it.

In the second half of last year, it was basically data-based, such as AAVE, Uniswap, SNX and other leading DeFi projects, whether it is the number of users or TVL, they are all supported by data, and the pull can be described as "reasonable and well-founded" .

However, it can be seen that the current Shanzhai has entered the stage of "unreasonable making troubles". It is no longer important whether there are fundamentals and data support. There are new projects in various WeChat groups and Telegram groups CX every day. Once launched, the market value starts from hundreds of millions of dollars. Not even a single user...

From this perspective, we appear to be in the middle to late stages of a bull market.

There is a notable feature at the end of the bull market: that is, a lot of bitcoins poured into the trading platform and began to cash out. It is precisely because these people cashed out that the price fell, the bull market ended and the bear market came.

If you look at this indicator, the bull market still has a long time to go, because now bitcoins are flowing out of the trading platform, and the number of bitcoins in the trading platform has been decreasing in recent years.

If this indicator is used as the standard, it is not too much to say that we are still at the beginning of the year.

This is a relatively different indicator. In the last round of bull market in 2017, ETH/BTC fluctuated almost like a roller coaster, with a volatility of up to 15%. However, the volatility of ETH/BTC in this round of bull market has remained at 5% for a long time. %the following.

The reason may be related to the poor fundamentals of ETH in the previous round of bull market, which basically became an ICO tool, while this round relies on strong data support such as DeFi and NFT, and it has started to fall in the same period as BTC.

So this indicator may no longer work in this round of bull market, but according to past experience, the volatility of ETH/BTC has tightened, which usually means that we are at least a long way from the end of the bull market.

This should be an index that many people are familiar with, created by Jiang Zhuoer. The logic of index creation is that when a round of bull market ends with frantic market sentiment and severe bubbles, and short-term price increases exceed the speed of newcomers and new funds entering the market, the bull market bubble will burst and a bear market will begin.

This process is described in mathematical language, that is, the "60-day cumulative increase" is too high. According to the historical data of previous bull markets, the 60-day index in the round of 2017 was 140%. We will break through 100% in February, and now it has fallen by 35% because BTC has been sideways for a long time.

So I feel that if a bear market is coming, there must be another 100% increase. Otherwise, the 105% wave in February is the peak of the bull market? This is really hard to believe. In any case, when the 60-day index approaches or even breaks through 100%, you need to be vigilant.

This is also a very commonly used index, which reflects the public's concern for Bitcoin. Generally speaking, when the search-zce index soars, it is one of the symbols that the bull market has reached the end.

Except for January and February, it seems that we are still far from the end of the bull market in 2017.

This round of bull market may be the most tangled. In the last round, except for BTC, everyone was drawing cakes. Blockchain has no real application, and there is nothing that can be out of the circle, so the bear is confident, a big bubble , It explodes when poked.

In this round, apart from people in the circle, BTC has begun to be truly recognized by institutions and traditional financial circles. Big companies such as Tesla have begun to allocate, many pension funds have begun to buy, ETF is not far from passing, Coinbase is about to go public, ETH has also found its own direction, and DeFi has proven to be effective.

Innovation continues every day, the number of users, the amount of locked positions, and the cumulative income are all growing, and even one chain of ETH can't eat enough to overflow to other chains. NFT has begun to "out of the circle" through encrypted art and NBN Topshot.

The following hot spots include Uniswap V3, Layer 2 of Op and ZK, Polkadot's parachain auction, Dfinity's redefinition of blockchain applications and world computers...

Hot spots follow one another. Eternal bull market? No one really knows. I can only say that you should not think that you can sell to the highest point. The stop profit is correct at any time. At least the principal should be run out first.

For example, you can sell some bitcoins for 60,000, 80,000, and more than 100,000. With the money you can buy a house, a car, a watch, or a bag to improve your life, you can exchange it for a mining machine or a stable coin to mine for you. Regardless of the continuous follow-up income, in short, don't greet the end of the bull market with full positions.

After all, this may be the last round of dividends that ordinary people can participate in.

Where is the bull market going? What do you think? Welcome to share your views in the message area.

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