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Gu Yanxi: Bitcoin after Coinbase listing



Coinbase has finally completed its listing amidst much anticipation in the market. Although its market value did not reach the market's expected $100 billion, its market value is still very impressive, especially for a company founded in 2012. The operating data disclosed during the listing process of Coinbase is consistent with the overall trend of the market. We can still be sure that the bull market for cryptocurrencies will continue this year. Among various encrypted digital currencies, Bitcoin will still maintain its absolute leading position. Whether it is in the short term or long term, it will continue to maintain its continuous growth. The continuous growth of Bitcoin is determined by the basic characteristics of its products and the current development trend of legal currency. In the near term, some events that are and are expected to happen in 2021 indicate that the development trend of Bitcoin will continue.

There are currently 10 Bitcoin-based ETFs in the U.S. market that are applying for establishment. The earliest one is likely to be at the end of April, and the SEC will make a decision of approval or rejection. Recently, the Bitcoin ETF launched in Canada has been warmly welcomed by the Canadian market. The current asset size of this ETF has reached 1.4 billion US dollars. It took this ETF less than two months to achieve this size. Such a scale is among the best among all ETFs. If Bitcoin-based ETFs are launched in the U.S. market, the amount of assets flowing into these ETFs will far exceed that of Canadian Bitcoin ETFs. In view of the development of encrypted digital assets, especially the attitude of the new SEC chairman towards encrypted digital finance, the applications for these bitcoin-based ETFs in the United States are likely to be approved. Therefore, a large amount of funds will flow to Bitcoin through these ETFs in the US market.

Gu Yanxi: The entry of institutional funds pushes up the market value of Bitcoin, and its value consensus is completely different from the value consensus of the Internet era: On December 22, Gu Yanxi, a researcher of blockchain and encrypted digital assets, published a column saying that Bitcoin is now The market capitalization of China has surpassed the market capitalization of JP Morgan Chase, the largest commercial bank in the United States, and has also surpassed the market capitalization of Visa, a network that provides global credit card clearing services. This shows that the market has formed a consensus on the value of Bitcoin on a global scale. If only ordinary retail investors around the world form a consensus on the value of Bitcoin, it will be difficult to push the market value of Bitcoin to the current height. The reason why Bitcoin has reached its current market value is because institutional funds have begun to enter Bitcoin. He said in the article that a common view still exists in the market is that the value of Bitcoin is the result of market speculation, and the value caused by such speculation will not last. This view often compares Bitcoin's value to similar bubbles in history, such as the most recent dot-com bubble. However, the current value consensus of Bitcoin is fundamentally different from the value consensus of the Internet era. The value of Bitcoin is not at all dependent on underlying ownership or expected returns. The characteristic of Bitcoin value is that it is its value itself. The size of this value is completely judged by the market, and it is completely people's subjective judgment. Gu Yanxi finally pointed out that the market is not very optimistic about the current currency circulation mechanism, so it is possible to use Bitcoin as a value storage and transfer tool, which leads to the continuous rise of Bitcoin prices. [2020/12/22 16:03:48]

If we look at the impact of the establishment of a gold ETF on the price trend of gold, we can predict the impact of the Bitcoin ETF on the price trend of Bitcoin.

Gu Yanxi: The launch of Libra will push up the price of Bitcoin and promote the generation of more digital currencies: On November 30, Gu Yanxi, a researcher of blockchain and encrypted digital assets, published a column saying that if Libra is launched, it will at least Bring the following aspects of impact. First, Libra will expand the influence of the US dollar on a global scale. The existing U.S. dollars are currently circulating on a clearing and settlement system supported by a centralized system. The Libra USD stablecoin runs on the Libra blockchain. The Libra blockchain is completely independent of the existing US dollar payment system. It can reach areas that the current payment system cannot reach. For the Libra USD stablecoin, its biggest application development space lies in areas where the local legal currency is weak. Second, it will promote the generation of more digital currencies. After a stable currency of the scale of Libra is introduced to the market, this will not only further prove the development trend of this demand in the market, but also show the feasibility of this product. The introduction of Libra stablecoins to the market will further prompt central banks to act individually and cooperate with each other to provide CBDC. Third, it will push up the price of Bitcoin. Among the various application scenarios of Libra stablecoins, encrypted digital currency transactions are a major application scenario. The influx of a large amount of money provides the basis for the growth of the price of encrypted digital currency. Among the various encrypted digital currencies, Bitcoin is still generally recognized, so the price growth of Bitcoin has better conditions. Fourth, prompt more companies to consider their own encrypted digital financial strategies. [2020/11/30 22:33:04]

In this year, the Diem stablecoin is likely to be approved for establishment. So a USD-based Diem stablecoin is likely to be launched. Given the worldwide influence of members of the Diem Association. The Diem dollar stablecoin is likely to be widely promoted and applied around the world. Among the various applications of U.S. dollar stablecoins, one of the main uses is the transaction of encrypted digital currency, which of course also includes the transaction of Bitcoin. Therefore, the launch of the Diem USD stablecoin will bring more users and funds to Bitcoin.

Gu Yanxi, the founder of American Liyan Consulting Company, comprehensively introduced the basic composition and benefits of the digital financial ecology: at 20:00 on July 17, the excellent elective courses of the Huobi University Blockchain Talent Special Training Camp continued. In this issue, Gu Yanxi, the founder of Liyan Consulting Company, a researcher and practitioner in the blockchain and encrypted digital asset industry, is invited to give a lecture on the theme of "How to Build a Digital Financial Ecosystem".

Gu Yanxi said that from the perspective of the basic composition of the digital financial ecology, it includes financial market infrastructure (FMI); digital currency; digital assets; and digital asset exchanges. The benefits brought by the digital financial ecology are the financial infrastructure shared globally; the threshold of the financial industry has been greatly reduced to achieve inclusive finance; the integration of the banking industry and the securities industry; the integration of payment and asset transactions. [2020/7/17]

Among the major banks in the United States, the degree of participation of each bank in the bitcoin product is different. Morgan Stanley is the most active-zce participant. It doesn't just invest in Bitcoin-related infrastructure services. It is also recommending Bitcoin products to its users. It is rumored that Goldman Sachs is also preparing to recommend bitcoin-related products and services to its users. Chase JP Morgan's research report also began to have a positive evaluation of Bitcoin. So it is expected that major U.S. banks will be more involved in Bitcoin-related services. Given the volume of funds held by these major banks and their users, this will allow more funds to flow into Bitcoin.

Voice | Gu Yanxi: Libra forces the central banks of various countries to coordinate their monetary policies and jointly deal with private stablecoins: Today, Gu Yanxi, director of the CBX Research Institute, stated in the article "Libra, the Pandora's Box of Central Banks" that Libra will Provide a financial market infrastructure (FMI) on a global scale and issue and circulate stable coins on it. Such an FMI and digital currency are a brand new financial system independent of the existing financial market. Given the global influence of the members of the Libra Association, this forces central banks to take seriously the various shocks brought about by Libra and formulate their own coping strategies. More critically, Libra forces the central banks of various countries to coordinate their monetary policies with each other to jointly deal with Libra and other private stablecoins that will surely appear in the future. [2019/7/15]

Recently, major insurance companies in the United States are jointly developing insurance products based on Bitcoin. These insurance companies include Mass Mutual, New York Life, Liberty Mutual and Starr. The importance of insurance companies participating in Bitcoin-related businesses is obviously not fully realized by the market.

Insurance companies are most concerned with the long-term stability of their assets. Because they need to have enough long-term financial preparations to deal with potential claims. If the funds they hold gradually decrease in the long run, this will definitely affect their long-term existence. Now, the massive issuance of US dollars is inevitably reducing the actual purchasing power of funds. Insurance companies collectively endorse Bitcoin, which shows how important they are to maintaining its long-term value.

Insurance companies can buy bitcoins to prevent the depreciation of the funds they hold, or even to increase the value of their holdings. In addition, for insurance companies, they can develop bitcoin-based insurance products. In view of the basic characteristics of Bitcoin, insurance companies can develop various insurance products, such as future payments based on Bitcoin. In order to provide such products, insurance companies must hold enough bitcoins, so these insurance companies will buy bitcoins in large quantities.

Due to the current price of Bitcoin is already very high, and the transfer cost on the existing network is still relatively high, so now payment based on Lightning Network has appeared. Such payment costs are very low, and the Bitcoin network can be directly used for more direct, simple and efficient payments. Strike is the development that has attracted the most market attention in this regard. Strike provides small payments on the Lightning Network, and can realize the connection with legal currency. This allows people in different regions to use Strike for convenient fiat currency transfers. The first test region for this application is now Salvador. It will be promoted in Europe and other places. Application promotion like Strike will increase the actual users of Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin is very strongly positively correlated with the address on the network.

The development of terminals offering bitcoin payments is also very rapid. For example, Cash App in the United States supports small transfers between Bitcoin users. In addition to Cash App, other third-party payment and transaction terminals in the U.S. market have also begun to support Bitcoin buying and selling transfer services. Examples include PayPal, Robinhood, and Venmo. The support of these mobile terminals for Bitcoin will allow more users to use Bitcoin. This will directly promote the growth of the price of Bitcoin.

The above factors are some of the factors that are positive for Bitcoin in the near future. In the long run, the most fundamental factor that determines the price of Bitcoin is the market demand for it. It is estimated that there are currently 145 million users worldwide, and the number is growing by 2 million per week. It is estimated that by 2024, there will be 1 billion Bitcoin users worldwide. Bitcoin becomes a de facto currency when 1 billion users around the world use it to exchange value. The size of its market value can therefore also be judged.


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