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CFTC COT Bitcoin Holdings Weekly Report: Institutions have missed out, and large investors have become the only accurate "prediction" account for this round of callbacks



On April 17, CFTC announced the latest CME Bitcoin Futures Weekly Report (April 7-April 13). During the latest statistical period, BTC prices resumed their upward trend. During the statistical period, the price rose by more than 5,000 US dollars, and the market's long-awaited rise conformed to the bullish sentiment of the mainstream market in the past few statistical periods. However, considering that the market has experienced a very obvious correction in the past few trading days, and there has been a very rare plunge in the weekend, so which types of accounts in this weekly position report "foreseen" this round of correction? More worth looking forward to.

The number of total positions (total open positions) dropped from 9,865 to 9,653 in the latest period of data. This value has actually rebounded when the market has risen significantly, and has not continued the upward momentum of the previous statistical cycle. However, the decline in the total amount does not mean that the market has foreseen the risk of a callback. Whether it is a decline in long positions or short positions still depends on the specific adjustment performance of various accounts.

U.S. CFTC Commissioner: Encryption regulation should not be done by a single agency, and requires close cooperation with the SEC: On November 29th, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commissioner Summer K. Mersinger said, "(Cryptocurrency regulation) is not just a single For institutional solutions, we may need to work more closely with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)." Such cooperation may mean that the CFTC will also receive more congressional oversight. The Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee oversee the SEC.

She said the CFTC should also take the opportunity to start working with state-level regulatory officials and, given the real scope of the regulatory issues, possibly also have conversations with global regulators. (CoinDesk) [2022/11/29 21:08:39]

CFTC Chairman: Waiting for the SEC to determine whether digital assets are securities to allow more digital asset futures: Golden Finance reported that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Heath Tarbert carefully outlined the CFTC and its sibling regulators in an interview, Namely the difference between the work of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Tarbert said the CFTC is waiting on the SEC to allow futures trading in more digital assets. Determining whether a digital asset is a security is “the sole responsibility of the SEC,” he said. If they determine that it's not a security, then the CFTC can start considering it under its own purview. Tarbert said that once people start to have a clear idea of whether something is a security, they will start to see more digital asset futures. Tarbert pointed out that the United States' leadership in technology, especially blockchain technology, is crucial, but he is not satisfied with the current framework in the United States. [2020/7/8]

From the perspective of sub-item data, the long position of the largest dealer has further increased from 501 to 556, and the short position has risen simultaneously from 264 to 311. This value continues to hit a new high in the past 7 weeks. Positions dropped from 31 to 0. In the latest statistical cycle, dealer accounts once again carried out a simultaneous increase in various positions, and the increase in long positions was further enlarged compared with the previous statistical cycle, which means that large institutions continue to be bullish about the BTC market outlook that has hit a new high Hold, this type of account did not throw early warning signals in advance before the latest round of rapid correction occurred.

News | CFTC approves LedgerX to launch physically-settled bitcoin futures: According to coindesk, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has approved bitcoin derivatives provider LedgerX to launch physically-settled bitcoin futures contracts. The CFTC said on Tuesday that it had approved LedgerX’s application for a Designated Contract Market (DCM) license, meaning the company can now offer new futures contracts. LedgerX is the second company approved to offer physically-settled bitcoin futures. Other companies such as Bakkt, Seed CX and ErisX are also planning to enter this market. The approval of LedgerX means that not only can it list these bitcoin futures contracts, but crucially it can offer its products to retail clients, not just institutional clients. LedgerX has not provided a timeline for when the futures will be launched. But its chief operating and risk officer, Juthica Chou, said the company wanted to be the first supplier of the product in the United States. [2019/6/25]

US CFTC regulation of cryptocurrencies may face challenges: A little-known cryptocurrency called 'My Big Coin' is at the center of a high-profile case that could decide the CFTC, according to (CFTC) has the power to sanction cryptocurrency-related fraud. In January of this year, the CFTC accused the issuer of "My Big Coin" of being involved in a $6 million fraud. "My Big Coin"'s lawyer argued that the CFTC has no regulatory power over cryptocurrencies because it is not a commodity like wheat or cotton. , and will not trade using futures contracts. U.S. District Judge Rya Zobel will hear the case on Thursday. [2018/6/14]

The long positions held by asset management institutions further increased slightly from 355 to 366, and the short positions fell sharply from 519 to 340. This value hit a new low in nearly 8 weeks, and the two-way positions rose from 115 to 136. In the latest statistical cycle, asset management institutions once again carried out a clear net long position adjustment, and the reduction rate of short positions hit a new high in recent months. Compared with dealer accounts, asset management institutions have a clearer attitude towards chasing gains in the latest statistical cycle. The sharp rise in the market has prevented such institutional investors from being aware of the risk of a sharp price correction in advance.

Judging from the performance of rebalancing in the latest statistical period, the two types of large institutional investors who have been very accurate in controlling the market wind direction for a long time in the past have no confidence in the upcoming BTC price against the background of new highs. The price callback made advance bearish preparations.

In the latest statistics period, the long positions of leveraged fund accounts further increased from 2481 to 2979, the short positions rose from 7477 to 7634 simultaneously, and the two-way positions rose from 535 to 535. Leveraged funds increased their long-short holdings simultaneously in the latest statistical cycle, and did not continue the idea of short-short reduction in the previous statistical cycle. This type of account has increased significantly in the context of the latest statistical cycle without a significant increase in the market. The increase in holdings means that the bullish attitude of such accounts towards the market has not really been reversed.

In terms of large positions, the long position dropped sharply from 3105 to 2433, the short position dropped from 174 to 0, and the two-way position remained unchanged at 0. The large account is the only type of account that has clearly reduced the position of long orders in the latest statistical period, and this large-scale reduction of long positions expresses a fairly clear bearish attitude. Unlike several other types of institutional accounts that continued to pursue the rise firmly and did not make a "misjudgment" in advance to respond to the sharp correction after the end of the statistical cycle, the large account has become the only type of account that accurately "foresees" the correction. Considering that the big investors have maintained a firm long-term thinking in the past few statistical cycles, this kind of decisively made the correct steering prediction under the background of the market hitting a record high, the adjustment of the big investors in the next few statistical cycles The warehouse idea seems to be very worthy of attention.

In terms of retail positions, long positions rose to 2820 contracts from 2742 contracts, while short positions fell to 695 contracts from 750 contracts. In the latest statistical period, retail accounts followed the rising performance of the market and made net long adjustments to chase the increase. Although retail investors chose to stand in the united front with institutional investors, this time it seems that the choice was not very accurate.


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