Is Coinbase Valuation Higher Than Other Exchanges? Valuation and influencing factors of 11 platform currencies

In the early hours of April 15th, Beijing time, Coinbase, an American compliant cryptocurrency exchange, was officially listed on the NASDAQ exchange. The highest rose to 429 US dollars, and the total market value once exceeded 80 billion. As early as the eve of Coinbase’s listing, affected by the good news that cryptocurrency exchanges will soon enter the traditional financial market, the platform coins of various centralized exchanges (CEX) started to rise. According to CoinGecko’s data, 53 CEX platform coins recently 7 The daily average currency price rose by 29.73%, and the overall performance was strong. Is there still room for the price of the platform currency to rise? Is the currency price of the platform currency overvalued? This involves the valuation judgment of the platform currency. To this end, PAData selected 11 platforms (6 centralized exchange platform coins and 5 decentralized exchange governance tokens), and discussed the platform coins by analyzing their relative changes in market value and expected income, as well as the main application scenarios. current valuation status. PAData found that: 1) Since the beginning of this year, the average (median) price of the platform currency has risen by 384%, and the increase of the platform currency of CEX is even higher; the average market value (median) of the platform currency has risen by 729%, and the governance of DEX Tokens rose even higher. The overall performance of the currency price and market value is better than last year. 2) Since 2020, the 6 CEXs have disclosed that the total amount of repurchase/destruction of platform tokens is about 946 million US dollars (if the latest first-quarter data released by Binance is included, this value will reach 1.553 billion US dollars). According to the ratio of repurchase/destruction funds of different exchanges to the total revenue, the (estimated) total revenue of the six exchanges reached 4.441 billion US dollars (if the latest first-quarter data released by Binance is included, this value will reach 7.418 billion Among them, except for Binance, the (estimated) total revenue of the other five companies this year is about 949 million U.S. dollars (if the latest first-quarter data of Binance is included, this value will reach 3.926 billion U.S. dollars). According to the estimation of the fee income of the five DEXs on April 3, the (estimated) total income since this year is about 1.171 billion US dollars. CEX has stronger revenue capability than DEX. Coinbase rose 6.7% before the market: According to the market, Coinbase (COIN.O) rose 6.7% before the market. Previously, Bitcoin rose 9.5%, standing at $42,000 per coin. [2022/3/9 13:47:03]3) Since 2020, the average price-to-sales ratio of BNB, OKB, FTT, HT, LEO, and KCS is approximately 8.2 times, 19.6 times, 79.2 times, 10.5 times, and 207.6 times and 14.3 times. Since the beginning of this year, the average price-to-sales ratios of UNI, SUSHI, 1inch, DODO, and BAL are approximately 19.7 times, 7.9 times, 57.1 times, 188.1 times and 66.2 times. Calculated based on Coinbase’s closing market capitalization and first-quarter revenue, its current price-to-sales ratio is about 36.3 times, which is higher than the average valuation of most CEX platform tokens. 4) For the valuation of CEX platform currency, changes in market value and expected income have a significant impact on it, but the sensitivity is not high. When the estimated revenue increase is more than three times the market value increase, the price-to-sales ratio will drop significantly, such as BNB and LEO, and the price-to-sales ratio of the two will drop by nearly 50%. For the valuation of DEX governance tokens, changes in market value and expected income have little impact on it, and the deviation is large. When the market capitalization rises higher than the expected revenue, the valuation still has a significant decline. The valuation of DEX governance tokens is more affected by other factors. 5) The application scenarios of CEX platform tokens are wider than those of DEX governance tokens. Benefiting from the public chain ecology developed by the exchange, they have been used in a wider range of scenarios as native assets. This year, the average price of the platform currency has increased by 384%, and the market value has increased by an average of 729%. Since the beginning of this year, the price of the platform currency has increased significantly. The average (median) price increase of the platform currency has reached about 560.48%, which is higher than the average (median) increase of DEX. BBKX has issued 0.1163 FIL per TB cloud computing power income for Filecoin today: According to BBKX official news, the cloud computing power income for the new mining of the BBKX platform has been distributed to user accounts today, and each TB cloud computing power can get 0.1163 FIL. You can go to the APP My Computing Power to withdraw the income of the day. The BBKX platform's new mining Filecoin full storage and all-inclusive cloud computing power starts to rush on time every Monday, and mining income starts to be generated every Saturday. There are two special sessions. Users who participate in the USDT special snap-up can also get the airdrop platform token BBK. BBKX focuses on mining financial services, and has obtained joint investment from node capital and on-chain funds. [2021/3/6 18:21:29] Among them, KCS and BNB ushered in a big rise this year, and the currency prices increased by 2594.94% and 1478.87%, respectively. As of April 12, the currency prices were 18.6 US dollars and 598.6 US dollars. Among the DEX governance tokens, DODO has the highest price increase this year, about 2244.63%, and the currency price as of April 12 is about 4.7 US dollars. The price increase of other platform currencies has basically achieved an increase of more than 100% this year, which is much better than last year. Affected by the sharp rise in currency prices and the continuous increase in the supply of DEX governance tokens, the market value of platform tokens has also surged this year. According to statistics, the average (median) market value increase of the 11 platform currencies this year has reached 729.81%, and the average (median) market value increase of the 5 DEX governance tokens is about 729.81%, which is higher than the CEX average (median) ) 511.63% increase in market value. NECC, a project that has been launched on CoinW, will launch a pledge method: According to official news, NECC, a project that has been launched on CoinW, will launch a wealth management function and open a pledge method. Pledge is the right. It is reported that NECC (Nature Energy Chain) is a decentralized hydrogen energy exchange platform jointly established by the New Energy Engineering Laboratory of Columbia University and Proton Technology of Canada, focusing on the industrialization of hydrogen energy, new energy and blockchain technology. NECC builds a smart interconnection platform through the layout of the underlying public chain, using cross-chain technology and alliance chains, and connects all automobile companies, automobile service companies and new energy suppliers. For details, please click the link: [2021/2/25 17:51:14] Among them, the market value of DODO has increased by 12245.33% this year, and the market value of UNI has also increased by more than 1000% this year. As of April 12, both The current market value has reached 530 million US dollars and 15.52 billion US dollars respectively. On the CEX platform, the market value of KCS and BNB has increased by more than 1000% this year, and the current market value is about 1.47 billion US dollars and 80.3 billion US dollars respectively. The value of CEX platform currency comes from destruction, and this year it has been disclosed that $219 million has been burned Continuing to distribute incentives, i.e. related to increasing supply. In fact, the platform tokens of CEX and DEX have completely different design logics of the token models. Judging from the changes in the circulation of some platform tokens counted by glassnode, the platform tokens of CEX are mainly deflationary, while the governance tokens of DEX are mainly based on a constant total amount. 58COIN Perpetual Swap Large Holder Position Report at 20:00: As of 20:00, according to 58COIN official perpetual contract data, the large holder position is as follows: In the BTC perpetual contract account, the average long position ratio is 15.87%, and the average short position ratio is 19.15%, the short position is temporarily leading, and the leading amount (net position amount) is 2,400 BTC. In the EOS perpetual contract account, the average long position ratio is 15.86%, and the average short position ratio is 16.82%. The short position is temporarily leading, and the leading amount (net position amount) is 749,700 EOS. In the ETH perpetual contract account, the average long position ratio is 16.15%, and the average short position ratio is 15.54%. The long position is temporarily leading, and the leading amount (net position amount) is 4,300 ETH. [2020/8/26] CEX uses a certain percentage of revenue/profit to repurchase and destroy the tokens circulating in the market or the tokens locked by the team, so that the total supply continues to decrease and achieve deflation. According to the statistics of PAData, the total amount of repurchased platform tokens of different exchanges accounts for 10%-30% of revenue/profit. FTX is higher, and the total amount of repurchases accounts for about 1/3 of the monthly transaction fees. Kucoin Low, with buybacks totaling about 10% of monthly profits. Moreover, there is a recent trend that CEX tries to speed up the deflation process through other supplementary burning plans, such as Binance's "anti-black hole burning plan" and OKEx's welfare burning plan. CEX hopes to use this to increase the rate of appreciation of the platform currency. According to PAData's statistics, since 2020, the six CEXs disclosed that the total number of platform tokens repurchased/destroyed is about 131 million, with a total equivalent value of about 946 million US dollars. Among them, the total amount of repurchase/destruction disclosed this year is about 219 million US dollars. According to the proportion of repurchase/destroyed funds of different exchanges to total revenue, the (estimated) total revenue of the six CEXs reached 4.441 billion US dollars, of which, as of April 13, the other five CEXs have achieved (estimated) this year ) total revenue is about 949 million US dollars (Binance has not disclosed the burning data for the first quarter during the statistical period). HiCoin and open source storage have reached a strategic cooperation: According to official news, HiCoin announced that it has reached a strategic cooperation with open source storage. In the future, the two parties will carry out in-depth cooperation at the technical and ecological levels. Open source storage is an innovative company specializing in IPFS distributed storage, which is a representative technology direction of blockchain 3.0. It has its own technology research and development team and an independently developed distributed storage device management platform, focusing on providing distributed storage software and hardware Integrated comprehensive solutions, dedicated to the development of distributed storage technology and blockchain technology research and development, to establish a new ecology based on distributed storage to solve the problem of global data storage. HiCoin takes the digital currency wallet solution as the core and provides a whole ecological service system. Realize zero foundation and quickly build a customized wallet. After 3 years of development, it has accumulated more than 100 wallet customer service experience, covering more than ten industries, and provides three major solutions: full-featured wallet solutions, asset management solutions, and comprehensive payment solutions. [2020/4/29] Considering the integrity of the data, and observing the actual revenue of each CEX according to the repurchase/destruction situation last year, it can be found that the total amount of platform tokens repurchased/destroyed by Binance is the highest, about 3.47 million, equivalent to a (estimated) profit of $1.734 billion. Secondly, Huobi’s repurchased/destroyed platform currency also reached 267 million US dollars, which is equivalent to (estimated) revenue of 1.333 billion US dollars. The (estimated) profits of OKEx, Bitfinex, and Kucoin are approximately $325 million, $195 million, and $24,079,800, respectively. The market is not sensitive to changes in the valuation of CEX platform tokens, and the valuation deviation of DEX governance tokens is relatively large. Because the revenue of CEX is directly linked to the total amount of repurchases, the revenue of DEX can be directly reflected by the transaction data on the chain. Therefore, the platform currency has become a token form closest to the traditional stock concept, which makes it possible to use traditional valuation models to judge the value of the platform currency. According to the market-to-sales ratio model, the market value of the platform currency in a certain period of time is divided by the value of the estimated total revenue in the same period as a measure of valuation. It is generally believed that if the value is lower, the target is more underestimated, and vice versa The target is overvalued. According to statistics, since 2020, the average valuation of the 6 CEX platform tokens has ranged from 8 times to 207 times, with large differences. Among them, the average price-to-sales ratio of BNB and HT is the lowest, only 8.2 times and 10.5 times respectively. On the contrary, the average price-to-sales ratio of LEO is the highest, exceeding 207 times. From the trend point of view, the price-to-sales ratio of BNB showed a downward trend, while OKB, HT, and KCS remained basically stable, and the FTT continued to rise to 245 times. If we observe the influencing factors of CEX price-to-sales ratio changes in a period of time with complete data, we can find that changes in market value and expected income have an impact on the price-to-sales ratio valuation, but the sensitivity is not high. When the estimated revenue increase is more than three times the increase in market value, the price-to-sales ratio will drop significantly, such as BNB and LEO. At this time, the price-to-sales ratio of the two has dropped by nearly 50%, and the market has seen that it is underestimated. If the estimated income increase is less than 1 times the market value increase, regardless of whether the market value and expected income are positive or negative growth at this time, the valuation of the platform currency will only decrease by less than 20%. The average price-to-sales ratio of the five DEX governance tokens this year is relatively close to that of the CEX platform tokens, and the average price-to-sales ratio ranges from 8 times to 188 times. Among them, SUSHI has the lowest average price-to-sales ratio this year, only 7.9 times, while DODO has the highest price-to-sales ratio this year, about 188.1 times. From the trend point of view, except for UNI this year, the price-to-sales ratios of the other four tokens have shown a clear upward trend. However, unlike the valuation of CEX platform tokens, changes in market value and expected income have very little impact on the market-to-sales ratio of DEX governance tokens, and the deviation is large. Not only have there been cases where the market value has risen higher than the expected income, but the valuation still has a significant decline. For example, the market value of UNI has increased by 77.64% in the last month, and the expected revenue increase is only 24.56%, but the price-to-sales ratio of UNI has dropped sharply by 58.71%. There have also been cases where price-to-sales ratios have risen sharply when market caps have risen in line with expected revenue increases. For example, BAL's market capitalization has increased by 63.06% in the last month, and its expected revenue has increased by about 61.87%, but its price-to-sales ratio has risen sharply by 123.71%. This may mean that the valuation of DEX governance tokens is more affected by other factors. The further expansion of the market-to-sales ratio of the application scenarios of the platform currency is a retrospective valuation analysis. The long-term value of the platform currency still depends on the breadth and depth of its application scenarios. Overall, the current application scenarios of CEX platform tokens are wider than those of DEX governance tokens. According to incomplete statistics on public information, the current main uses of platform tokens are transactions and equity certificates. These two scenarios are closely related to the exchanges themselves. Business and derivative business are closely related.

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