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Trillion market value has become an important support for BTC?



Bitcoin Market Overview The Bitcoin market traded in a relatively narrow 5.4% range this week, with a minimum of $57,168 and a maximum of $60,265. Bitcoin has now reached the milestone of over $1 trillion market capitalization for a full week, and to maintain this position, all Bitcoins will exceed $53,566. This is strong confidence in Bitcoin and the entire crypto asset class. On-chain activity continues to reinforce this stance, with transactions equivalent to more than 10% of the circulating supply above the $1 trillion threshold. At the same time, miners have returned to hoarding mode, and the indicators on the chain have almost been reset. Interestingly, futures open interest has reached new all-time highs, while volume and short liquidations are both down. Trillion Market Cap Becomes Important Support Now that Bitcoin has entered trillion market cap territory, the question at hand is whether the market can sustain these levels, and how well we have price support beneath us. The URPD indicator shows the distribution of on-chain trading volume in the price group, forming a trading volume curve indicator often used in technical analysis: on-chain trading volume. When there is a large amount of currency trading volume in a certain price band, it is likely to form a strong support (or resistance) level. V God moved trillions of meme tokens out of his public wallet: Golden Finance reports that V God (Vitalik Buterin) once again sent several dog-themed memes from his public wallet that he never asked for. Meme tokens. It is worth noting that V God sent most of the tokens to the decentralized exchange Uniswap, including 300 trillion jejudoge, more than 223 trillion kishu inu, 370 billion baby shiba and about 120 trillion huskytoken. According to Etherscan, while the numbers are staggeringly high, none exceeded $800,000 at the time of the transaction. It is reported that as a marketing gimmick, the creator of the meme token likes to send a large number of tokens to Vitalik. As of now, at least four other meme tokens have been sent to V God’s wallet, including floki pup, saiba inu, and misty inu. [2021/10/21 20:45:06] Above the $1 trillion market value threshold, more than 1.98 million BTCs have been traded, equivalent to 10.6% of the circulating supply. Impressively, this on-chain volume forms one of the strongest on-chain support levels since the price of $11,000-$12,000. Gartner released "The Real Business Opportunities of Blockchain": 10 years later, it will create new business value of 3.1 trillion US dollars: market analysis industry giant Gartner published a new book "Real Business Opportunities of Blockchain", through finance, logistics, real estate, automobiles, entertainment , medical care, smart city and other blockchain innovation examples, the book reveals the three major stages that the blockchain will go through when it is truly implemented, and how the blockchain will change your organization in the next 20 years. Gartner predicts that by 2030, blockchain will create $3.1 trillion in new business value globally, and by 2025, half of it will be used for operationally improved applications. However, people are easily misled by the good prospects and hype of the blockchain, and companies may also use wrong strategies under the threat of competition and fall into the wrong sense of progress and capabilities, thus failing to fully utilize the value of the blockchain. This book will help business executives and policy makers see through the hype, identify their goals, and focus on the core value proposition that blockchain can unlock, and what is necessary for blockchain business success. [2020/10/9] The peak trading volume in this range reached 2.97 million BTC, and the transaction price was between US$58,500 and US$59,100. The average transaction volume for this interval is 1.52 million BTC, which is also higher than most intervals. This volume range is likely to form a very strong support level that seems to justify Bitcoin's trillion market cap status. News | 2019Q3 Spot Exchange Research Report: The total market transaction volume reached 4.7 trillion US dollars, an increase of 16.07% from the previous month: TokenInsight released the 2019Q3 Spot Exchange Research Report. The report shows: 1. In the third quarter, the total transaction volume of the whole market reached 4.7 trillion US dollars, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.07%, and the growth rate slowed down significantly compared with the second quarter; the transaction volume in July, August, and September showed a slow and volatile downward trend. The main reason is that the spot market is relatively cold, the risk premium of encrypted assets in the world is high, and the incremental funds are small. The transaction funds in the market this quarter are mainly stock transactions in the second quarter. 2. Centralized exchanges still occupy more than 99% of the market share, even an increase of 0.04 percentage points from 99.86% in the second quarter, reaching 99.90%. Although decentralized exchanges have their own unique advantages, and major exchanges have also deployed decentralized exchanges one after another, due to the limited actual application scenarios of various on-chain assets, the development of cross-chain technology is still in its infancy. 3. In the third quarter, the correlation between the trading volume of the whole market and the price trend of BTC was only 0.18, which was as high as 0.71 in the second quarter. It can be seen that when BTC performs well in the current trading market dominated by emotions, the transaction volume mainly relies on BTC support. When BTC falls short of expectations, there are still transactions in other currencies to make up for it, and the richness of market transactions increases. 4. Compared with the first two quarters of 2019, the performance of various fiat currency trading pairs in the third quarter was quite different. The trading volume of the US dollar trading pair fell, while the trading volume of the other three fiat currencies nearly doubled. The Korean won with the highest total amount reached USD 98.3 billion, further challenging the absolute dominance of USD trading pairs in the market with a trading volume of USD 190 billion. 5. In the third quarter, the trading volume of TOP10 accounted for 73% of the whole market, but the trading volume should not be underestimated. Nearly half of the exchanges studied by TokenInsight have false trading volumes of more than 50%. [2019/11/13] Voice | Report shows that blockchain can increase global trade to $1 trillion by 2028: According to Cointelegraph, the World Economic Forum released a report saying that blockchain can increase global trade by 2028 Global trade has increased to US$1 trillion, and Bains Company, which co-produced the report, said that if the industry does not adapt, the trade financing gap may expand to US$2.4 trillion by 2025, and blockchain can solve this problem. [2018/9/24] URPD real-time chart To support this view, we look back at the total trading volume in USD over a period of time. The diagram below uses Glassnode’s Entity Adjustment Algorithm (EA), which is used to filter out transfers that are not considered economically meaningful (such as internal exchange transactions and self-transfers). From 2019 to mid-2020, the daily EA settlement volume on the Bitcoin network is usually around $1.7 billion. Since then, the trading volume on the chain has risen together with the price, an increase of more than 720%, and now the typical value of EA settled every day is 12.25 billion US dollars. This means that although the currency price has risen sharply, the transaction volume has also increased accordingly to support and prove the performance of the bull market. Digital currency exchange Kraken founder: the cryptocurrency market will break through the $1 trillion mark in 2018: Digital currency exchange Kraken founder and CEO Powell (Jesse Powell) said that the cryptocurrency market will witness continued growth , and will exceed the $1 trillion mark in 2018. Powell said on Tuesday that despite the sharp pullback in cryptocurrency prices in recent weeks, the digital currency market will still witness "accelerated" growth going forward. [2/14/2018] Real-time graph of entity-adjusted total transfer volume On-Chain Situation Last week we showed how long-term holders have slowed down selling over the past three months, a trend that has continued into this week. Additionally, miners are now on board, with the Miner Net Position Change indicator flashing green, indicating that miners are holding newly mined coins. While miners have less and less influence as sell-side entities (compared to daily transaction volume), their spending patterns can provide insight into sentiment in the Bitcoin market. Real-time graph of miners’ net position changes. The adjusted SOPR indicator can give us an insight into how much profit is realized by selling coins every day (while ignoring coins that are less than 1 hour old). If profits are taken by older coins, aSOPR (Adjusted SOPR) will trend upwards, conversely, when profitable coins remain dormant, aSOPR will trend downwards. The higher the aSOPR indicator, the more currencies are profited. When aSOPR is lower than 1.0, it means that the currency is in a state of total loss. In a bull market, we typically see aSOPR "resets," i.e., during price corrections, aSOPR returns to levels near or below 1.0. This is a sign that profitable coins are staying dormant and confidence in holding assets is being restored. The aSOPR diagram below shows two key observations. The aSOPR almost reset to 1.0 this week, indicating that profit taking has dwindled and indicating that confidence in the market remains. The consecutive peaks in aSOPR have decreased over the past three months. This shows that as the bull market progresses, profits are reduced, indicating again the long-term trend of market confidence. Adjusted SOPR real-time graph Finally, we review the distribution of wealth between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), which is often a cyclical indicator of wealth transfer events. This analysis points to some key observations. STH has accumulated about 440,000 more BTC than LTH has spent in the past 6 months, indicating that new demand entering the market has outstripped LTH selling. As indicated in pink, relative wealth transfers are slowing. That's because long-term holders slow down selling. Similar wealth transfers occurred around the 2017 peak, so this is an indicator to watch. This has the potential to be both a supply constraint (bullish) but also indicates a cyclical change in holding behaviour. A key difference from 2017 is that LTHs currently hold 66% of the circulating supply, which is much higher than the peak of 58% in 2017. This shows that, compared with historical cycles, the demand for holdings in this cycle has increased. On the contrary, there are more currencies that are profitable and may become overhead supply in the future. LTH vs. STH relative holdings real-time chart Overall, the strength and demand for holding coins in a bull market has been remarkable over the past few weeks. This week largely continued that trend, with positive signs from both miners and long-term holders, while trading volumes also supported the new trillion-dollar valuation. The above analysis considers the spot market and on-chain traffic. Since this is the first market in the Bitcoin bull market to use derivatives extensively, we will also look at the futures market to assess the overall performance of the derivatives market. Futures Trading Futures open interest hit another record high this week, surpassing $231 billion, with Binance and OKex together accounting for 32% of all contracts. Futures opening price firm offer chart Interestingly, throughout March, futures trading volume has continued to decline, and this week is particularly quiet compared to previous months. Real-time chart of futures trading volume Perpetual futures funding rates have also almost reset to neutral levels, indicating a reduction in excessive long speculation and increased short interest, which balances long traders. Futures funding rate firm offer chart Over the past few months, while short sellers have seen record liquidation volumes, their liquidation volumes have also been gradually declining. This suggests that short sellers either had superior risk management in bull markets or, more likely, many short sellers deployed risk-neutral strategies in their trades. The combination of high open interest in the short liquidation chart, reduced futures trading volume, low short-term liquidation, and lower funding rates proves that "cash and carry" trading is the strategy of choice under current market conditions . Hold and carry trades allow traders to combine long spot and short futures to lock in the current funding rate/premium while remaining risk neutral to price volatility. As more traders take advantage of this arbitrage, open short interest will increase, but there will be no corresponding liquidation as traders remain equity neutral by holding spot.


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