Golden Trend丨The golden rule of BTC bull market is expected to continue

The picture above shows the long-term trend of BTC from 2010 to 2020. Through research, it can be found that the three production halvings are used as the time division point, extending from the lowest point of each previous bear market to the time point of the production halving in each cycle. A period of time, compared with the time period when the market began to fluctuate and rise to the highest point of this round of bull market after halving, we found that in the entire bull market cycle, there are 51% and 49% of the two time periods the golden ratio.

Golden Afternoon News | A list of important developments at noon on May 27: 7:00-12:00 Keywords: Hainan, Demonstration Zone, Bitmain, Polkadot, TROY

1. Hainan's new policy: Support leading enterprises to explore the construction of digital asset trading platforms.

2. Guangzhou was approved to create the first demonstration zone for blockchain development.

3. Ningbo issued the "Three-Year Action Plan" to create a highland for blockchain development.

4. South Korea plans to amend the current income tax law to tax cryptocurrencies, mining and ICO.

5. It is reported on the Internet that Ketuan Zhan signed a document to dismiss executive Liu Luyao from Bitmain.

6. Ethereum 2.0 multi-client test network Witti is online.

7. The founder of Polkadot wrote: It is not yet the final main network or launch more candidate chains.

8. MoneyGram partners with Uber to provide digital currency transfer services for Uber drivers

9. ErisX launches an encrypted spot and futures OTC bulk trading platform.

10. TROY responds to doubts: the project is an independent operation and investor relations need to be optimized. [2020/5/27]

For example, taking the entire bull market cycle as an example, Bitcoin hit the lowest point of the bear market in early January 2015, and it lasted about 546 days until the second production halving in July 2016. Afterwards, BTC continued to fluctuate upward until 17 It rose to the highest level in December 2013. This period of time is about 532 days. The ratio of the two conforms to the golden ratio of 51% and 49%. The first round of bull market from the end of 2011 to 2013 also conforms to this rule.

Analysis| Golden disk: BTC futures contract position changes: Comprehensive analysis of the golden disk: According to OKEX data, 63% of accounts are long, 35% are short, 22.37% are long, and 22.04% are short. The gap between the main short positions narrowed, and the willingness to be bullish weakened. As of press time, the quarterly BTC0928 contract price is $7,174, and the spot price is $7,184, with a discount of $10, which is a significant decrease from the previous month, indicating that market expectations are too high. [2018/9/2]

From the current point of view, this round of BTC is calculated from the time when the bear market hit a minimum of 3150 US dollars in December 2018 to the third production halving in May 2020. This period of time is about 518 days. According to the golden time division ratio, from Counting from the third halving on May 12, it will take about 504 days and 49% of the time, and the price will rise to the highest point of this round of bull market, probably around October 2021, which is about There are still 180 days to go. The lowest point of this round of bull market started from 3,150 US dollars. Even with the sharp drop of 312, it has not reached a new low, which is in line with the characteristics of previous bull market cycles.

Golden Finance News: On November 2, the Chongqing Blockchain Industry Base was inaugurated locally. By 2020, Chongqing will build 2 to 5 blockchain industry bases, introduce and cultivate more than 10 leading enterprises in the domestic subdivision of blockchain, and more than 50 blockchain enterprises with core technologies or growth models. Cultivate more than 500 middle and senior talents in blockchain. [2017/11/2]

Of course, history will not simply repeat itself, but big data can be studied to predict the general trend in the future. At present, the golden time division ratio of 51% and 49% is still in effect. At present, the overall probability of BTC is still in the relay stage of the bull market. The market will accelerate to catch up to the top in the later stage. The general direction remains optimistic about the market outlook.

Tags：

UNI